Steel buyers surveyed by Steel Market Update this week report that demand is plunging and they expect steel prices to continue declining right along with it for at least the next 30 days. The majority believe that efforts by the mills to cut production and match supply with demand will not be enough to establish […]
Steel Buyers Sentiment—how steel executives view their prospects for success—has continued to deteriorate as the market struggles with the coronavirus restrictions. Current sentiment dipped into pessimistic territory to a reading of -8 this week, the lowest level since November 2010. It is also the first time we have entered the pessimistic portion of our index […]
Today we took our Price Momentum Indicator on flat rolled steel to Lower from Neutral. We are clearly seeing an erosion in pricing, which is expected to continue over the near term. The economy is heading into recession. Key indicators are pointing toward a slowdown in construction as states and local municipalities mandate construction projects […]
Spot prices appear to have turned a corner as a growing percentage of both service centers and their manufacturing customers report steel prices on the decrease. As the chart below shows, 24 percent of the service centers responding to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this past week now say they are lowering prices to their customers. […]
Lead times for spot orders of flat rolled and plate steel products showed initial signs of shortening this week, according to returns from Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level—the longer the lead time, the busier the mill. The current lead times […]
Steel producers and distributors told Steel Market Update this week that they remain busy serving customers, despite the disruption to the economy from the coronavirus. Not surprisingly, the mills appear very willing to negotiate spot prices to keep business flowing. The majority of service center and manufacturing executives responding to SMU’s questionnaire on Monday and […]
News on the spread of the coronavirus changes by the hour, which effects the outlook of steel buyers. But as of early this past week, based on Steel Market Update’s canvass of the market, the steel sector appears to have weathered the worst of the bad news so far. Steel Prices Most executives responding to […]
Coronavirus fears have taken a major toll on how steel executives view their prospects for success. Steel Buyers Sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, suffered the sharpest one-week decline in the index’s 11-year history. Sentiment plunged by 45 points, from a Current Sentiment reading of +58 down to +13, and a Future Sentiment reading […]
Flat Rolled = 46.1 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 49 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled As prices eroded in February, service centers further reduced their flat rolled inventories 4.6 percent month on month by month’s end, according to adjusted February data compared with January’s final. With 20 shipping days in February compared to […]
We had to change the way we calculate the adjusted data, which will also change how we derive our analysis. Previously, we adjusted the data to mirror the exact mix of service centers that responded to the previous month’s survey. We saw a decrease in participation in the March survey, which we can understand given […]
Using U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) data, Steel Market Update has broken down the import tonnage of cold rolled sheet into coil and leveled, four thickness ranges, and how much was full hard, annealed and high strength. This update examines the total cold rolled sheet and strip imports into the U.S. for 2019 as a […]
Steel buyers sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, has moved up and down within a small, three-point range since the beginning of the year. Both Current and Future Sentiment registered a very slight uptick in the past few weeks and remain in optimistic territory well above the average of +47 to +51 in 2019. […]
Average mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel saw little change this past week. In fact, according to Steel Market Update’s surveys of the market, lead times have moved up or down by just a day or two, depending on the product, since the beginning of the year. Lead times for steel delivery […]
Price negotiations have tightened up noticeably as the mills seek to collect the $40 price increase they announced last week. Significantly more of the service center and manufacturing executives responding to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this week said the mills are holding the line on prices, especially for hot rolled and galvanized. In the hot […]
Last week’s price hike by the mills did little to change the outlook of most steel buyers. The majority (52 percent) of those responding to Steel Market Update’s canvass of the market this past week still believe prices will remain the same, despite the latest $40 increase announced by the mills on Feb. 27. Another […]
Steel Market Update raised its Flat Rolled Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral yesterday from Lower in anticipation of a price hike believed imminent from the mills. As expected, Nucor and U.S. Steel both announced increases today of $40 per net ton on all new spot orders of hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized steel, effective […]
Steel Market Update is revising our Price Momentum Indicator on flat rolled to Neutral from Lower. Sometimes you need a bit of a prod in order to see things clearly. We’ve had many conversations and reviews of the spot pricing data and came to the conclusion the timing of our move to Lower was incorrect. […]
Key Market Indicators show that the improvement in market trends in December and January translated to a jump in the present situation in February. This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data on which we have reported in detail during the month. In it we summarize 36 data streams that describe […]
Based on the results from the flat rolled and plate steel market trends analysis Steel Market Update conducted this past week, along with new steel price discussions SMU had with steel buyers late last week, we have decided to move our flat rolled (hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume) price Momentum Indicators to Lower […]
Steel buyers sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, has remained relatively steady at a fairly optimistic level since the beginning of the year. But both Current and Future Sentiment have registered a very slight decline in the past few weeks. SMU’s Current Sentiment Index registered +56 this week, down from +63 at this time […]
Mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel have shortened slightly this month, though not yet enough to signal a definite trend. The current numbers suggest the mills are still maintaining relatively healthy order levels, but a change may be in the works. Lead times for steel delivery are an indicator of demand […]
Price negotiations with the mills have continued to loosen up as it’s rapidly becoming a buyer’s market. The vast majority of service center and manufacturing executives responding to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this week said the mills are open to price negotiations on nearly all products to win the orders. In the hot rolled segment, […]
Writen by: John Packard, President & CEO, Steel Market Update On Tuesday I received a question about the SMU Price Momentum Indicator, which is currently pointing toward Neutral pricing over the next 30 days. Yesterday (Wednesday) I received the following note from one of our readers after reading Tuesday evening’s issue of Steel Market Update: […]
Flat Rolled = 52.6 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 48.4 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled Service centers scaled back their flat rolled steel inventories at the end of January to 52.6 shipping days of supply on an adjusted basis, down from 62.9 in December, according to the SMU Service Center Inventories Report. This […]
Service centers’ support of higher steel prices appears to have turned the corner and begun to recede, which helps to explain the recent downturn in the price of hot rolled coil. Steel Market Update data places the current price for hot rolled at $580 per ton, down $30 from the $610 peak in early January. […]
Steel buyers remain optimistic about their prospects for success, but perhaps slightly less so than in mid-January. Steel prices have seen modest declines since then, along with headlines on presidential impeachment and a deadly virus in China adding to worries about the economy. Steel Market Update’s Current Sentiment Index registered +61, down from +63 two […]
Earlier today, Steel Market Update adjusted our Price Momentum Indicators on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume to Neutral. What this means is we see market prices in transition, or in a holding pattern, and we no longer expect prices to rise over the next 30 days. Prior to today we had momentum on […]
Mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel extended by more than a week during last year’s fourth quarter, but so far this year have been fairly flat. The average lead time for orders of hot roll is now a bit less than five weeks, cold roll around six and a half weeks […]
Price negotiations between steelmakers and steel users have loosened considerably on most steel products. Buyers report some new wiggle room in talks over spot prices. In the hot rolled segment, nearly three out of four of the steel buyers responding to SMU’s questionnaire this week (74 percent) said the mills are now more willing to […]
Key Market Indicators show that the improvement in market trends that occurred in December continued into January. This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data SMU has reported in detail during the month. It summarizes 36 data streams that describe the state of the steel market and provide forward guidance for […]