Economy
Chicago Business Barometer rises in January
Written by Stephanie Ritenbaugh
January 31, 2025
After three months of decline, the Chicago Business Barometer increased 2.6 points to 39.5 in January.
Despite the gain, the index remains below both the levels of November 2024 and the 2024 average.
The increase was driven by a jump in new orders and production, the report stated, but falls in supplier deliveries, employment, and order backlogs moderated the increase.
A look at some of the numbers
New orders rebounded 13.8 points, reversing last month’s decline. This leaves it the highest level since September 2024 and above the 2024 average, the report stated.
Production expanded 4.0 points to a similar level to that seen in November, the report found.
Employment dropped 9.0 points to the lowest level recorded since June 2020. Two-thirds of respondents reported unchanged employment while nearly 30% reported lower levels of employment, the report stated.
Inventories gained 14.9 points, returning to expansionary levels for the first time since November 2023. This is after four consecutive months of decline, the report found.
Prices paid eased 2.7 points, the fourth successive decline and the lowest level since July 2024.
The survey ran from Jan. 1 to Jan. 16. The Chicago Business Barometer asked one special question: “How do you see business activity growing in the first half of 2025, by percent?”
Slightly more than half (54%) answered between 0% – 5%, while one quarter expected no growth.
Stephanie Ritenbaugh
Read more from Stephanie RitenbaughLatest in Economy
CRU: Will US tariff policy be transactional or transformational?
The Trump 1.0 tariffs appeared to have little positive effect on the US manufacturing, partly because they hurt export competitiveness.
Beige Book finds mixed demand trends, tariff concerns
Manufacturing activity exhibited slight to modest increases across a majority of districts. However, manufacturers expressed concerns over the potential impact of looming trade policy changes between late January and February.
Construction spending drops marginally in January
Construction spending edged down slightly in January, slipping for the first time in four months. The US Census Bureau estimated spending at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,196 billion in January, down 0.2% from December’s downward revised rate. The January figure is 3.3% higher than a year ago. January’s result, despite the slight erosion, […]
ISM: Manufacturing expansion slowed in February
The Manufacturing PMI registered 50.3% in February. That’s 0.6 percentage points lower compared to the 50.9% recorded in January.
Chicago Business Barometer up but still pointing to weak conditions
The Chicago Business Barometer rose to an eight-month high in February. Despite the recovery, the measure continues to indicate deteriorating business conditions, as it has for over a year.