New York state manufacturing fell in January

“Price increases, while subdued, picked up,” Richard Deitz, economic research advisor at the New York Fed, said in a statement. “Firms grew more optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead.”

The new orders index fell 13 points to -8.6, pointing to a modest decline in orders. The shipments index retreated 11 points to -1.7, indicating that shipments were little changed. Unfilled orders continued to fall.

The inventories index remained positive at 5.8, a signal that inventories grew. The delivery times index came in at 3.5, suggesting that delivery times were slightly longer, and the supply availability was zero, a sign that supply availability was unchanged, according to the survey.

In terms of labor, the index number of employees rose eight points, but held near zero at 1.2, suggesting that employment levels were steady. The average workweek index remained negative at -15.1, pointing to a significant decline in hours worked, the survey found.

To smooth out monthly fluctuations, the Index can be recalculated on a three-month moving average basis (3MMA) to better highlight trends. As a 3MMA, the Index fell 0.2 points from December to January to 6.9 (Figure 1). Recall that earlier this year the 3MMA Index had fallen to -22.3 in March, the fourth-lowest figure within our 15-year data history (only greater than the months of April, May, and June 2020).

An interactive history of the Empire State Manufacturing Index is available here on our website.