Galvanized buyers see glimmers of optimism amidst the chaos

The call’s moderator opened this month’s discussion with a sobering review of 2024’s pricing trajectory, noting that galvanized sheet prices saw a steady decline of more than $20 per hundredweight ($400/short ton) over the year. “2024 was unique,” he commented, “with no significant week-to-week price increases — just a slow, unprecedented stability.”

Demand slog continues

Several members on the call mentioned their ongoing struggles with demand.

One sheet and HVAC wholesaler said sales were notably slow in the last quarter of 2024. And with severe weather disruptions this month, 2025 has also started on a low note. Although he’s “still pretty optimistic about 2025,” he admitted he is “starting to run out of excuses as to why the numbers are off.”

He also noted that his company is holding its inventory levels “slightly above average” as they see “much more opportunity for prices to go up than to go down.”

Meanwhile, another buyer provided a contrasting viewpoint. Expecting ‘crickets’ in the marketplace to end 2024, they were pleasantly surprised to end it above normal. They reasoned it may have been driven by last-minute purchases to hedge against tariff uncertainty.

The second buyer said their inventories are balanced. And while they are seeing good activity from service centers and the agricultural sector, they hinted that sustained demand is still elusive.

Tariff and trade uncertainty

Uncertainty around tariffs and trade loomed large in the discussion.

As one buyer at a duct manufacturing firm put it: “Nobody knows” the impact President-elect Trump’s tariffs will have, but it’s “one of the more urgent and top-of-mind issues that we need to figure out.”

“We’re just grinding through,” another buyer commented, waiting to understand the impacts the still-unknown tariffs will have.

The ongoing coated steel trade case adds further uncertainty and will likely result in limited import availability after March.

“We’re hearing from multiple traders that there’s some boats steaming in that have to get here before March,” commented one galvanized sheet buyer with some import exposure. With no resolution to the trade case expected for months, “There may be very, very limited import coated products – galvanized and Galvalume – in the US,” he warned.

Summing up survey and sentiment

The meeting ended with the monthly survey asking participants about galvanized sheet pricing sentiment moving forward.

The next 30 days look “pretty status quo,” the moderator commented, with 62% of respondents expecting relatively flat pricing and the other 38% anticipating a rise of $2-4/cwt.

For reference, SMU’s market check on Tuesday, Jan. 14, pegged current galvanized prices in the range of $41-45/cwt ($820-900/st), with an average of $43/cwt ($860/st).

“We’re more bullish over the next six months,” the moderator added, with 62% anticipating a $2-6/cwt rise and another 31% predicting increases of more than $6/cwt.

Looking out a year from now, more than half of respondents (54%) foresee galvanized base prices of $50-59/cwt ($1,000-1,180/st). Still, the moderator noted there are now expectations of prices rising into the $60-69/cwt range (23%) and $70-79/cwt range (8%). Still, 15% predict prices of $40-49/cwt a year from now.

“A little glimmer of optimism,” he commented, mixed with a “glimmer of chaos.”

He ended the call on a positive note. “I’m optimistic about 2025 and 2026 and 2027. … the sentiment is that there are a lot of good fundamentals in place,” he concluded.