Ferrous Scrap
Ferrous scrap tags increase ~$20/gt in January
Written by Ethan Bernard
January 14, 2025
US scrap tags rose for all the grades tracked by SMU in January in what was deemed a “restocking rally,” sources said.
The January market was up ~$20 per gross ton (gt) across the board. This did not include turnings, which were up $30/gt.
“There were probably some specific deals for prime grades that were up $25-30 based on tonnage and where the material was headed,” one source said.
SMU’s January scrap pricing stands at:
- Busheling at $400-425 per gross ton (gt), averaging $412.50/gt, up $20 from December
- Shredded at $375-400/gt, averaging $387.50/gt, up $17.50 from December
- HMS at $320-360/gt, averaging $340.00/gt, up $25.00 from December
As to what was behind the jump, the first source said it was “mainly a restocking rally, with a lid on the upside due to ongoing export price weakness.”
“Indeed, new export sales have returned to the low $340s CIF for 80/20 grade,” he noted.
A second source cited factors causing the increase such as mills “replenishing low year-end inventories, and tight scrap supply brought on by lower prices and seasonal weather.”
February outlook
Sideways for February, or modest gains, seemed to be the general consensus.
US demand might be improving. But it’s incremental at best. So don’t expect a rally over the next 60 days, the first source said.
“February at this point looks stable. It could be either side of sideways depending on January flows (winter weather has returned for the first time in several years), export pricing, and incremental US demand,” he concluded.
The second source agreed. “It is our expectation that these factors will still be present in February, resulting in at least sideways pricing.”
A third source said some mills didn’t obtain all the scrap they wanted at a $20 increase and had to make deals above this price to fill in. “With winter affecting logistics, the February market is sideways at worst and likely higher,” he added.
Ethan Bernard
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Final Thoughts
Input costs have been driven higher by tighter supplies and restricted flows after a tough winter. Could rising demand from mills fuel an extended rally into Q2? Shredder feed has been strained as shredders try to fill backlogs. And shredded prices could jump by $50 per gross ton (gt) this month, some suggest. It's a similar story with prime grades. That's because industrial generation is down, and hot-rolled coil production is picking up.