Infrastructure

Dodge Momentum moves down again

Written by David Schollaert

November 8, 2024

Slowing growth in data center planning and nonresidential projects caused the Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) to pull back in October. The index has declined for two consecutive months, after five months of growth following a two-year low in March.

Dodge Construction Network (DCN) reported a DMI of 197.2 in October, a 5% drop from 208.2 the month before. Institutional planning declined 2%, while commercial planning contracted 7%.

Even though data center planning has normalized from its early serge, and some pullback in nonresidential projects were seen in October. Sarah Martin, DCN’s associate director of forecasting, said “owners and developers remain confident in next year’s market conditions, and the planning queue remains poised to spur stronger construction activity in 2025, following deeper rate cuts by the Fed.”  

On the commercial side, most categories declined during October aside for hotel planning – which continued to gain momentum, the report said.

Education and public planning activity were bright spots in October for institutional planning, even though they were offset by weaker activity in healthcare, recreational, and religious projects.

Compared to one year ago, October’s DMI was 13% higher this year, with the institutional segment rising 3% and the commercial segment surging 18%.

The influence of data centers on the DMI this year cannot be overstated. If removed from 2024’s data, commercial planning would be down 4% y/y, and DMI would be down 2%, according to the report.

The DMI tracks the value of nonresidential construction projects entering the planning stages and typically leads construction spending by about 12 months.

David Schollaert

David Schollaert is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update. David joined SMU after more than a decade in the metals and mining industry in a myriad of different roles. Much of his early experience and expertise were within the coverage and analysis of steel-making raw materials and served previously as senior editor of the CRU Prices Service. Most recently, however, before his return to market analysis, David held roles as a metals buyer and an operations manager for raw material suppliers. Based in CRU’s Pittsburgh office, David can be reached at david@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-720-1008.

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