Ferrous Scrap

October scrap tags inch up, market past bottom?
Written by Ethan Bernard
October 17, 2024
Scrap prices ticked up in October outside of Chicago and Detroit, scrap sources told SMU.
“There is no doubt in my mind that we are past the bottom of this year’s scrap market at this point,” one scrap source said. “Whether we move higher in November or have to wait until December is the question.”
A second source said he forecast that if November goes sideways, December will be up. On the other hand, “if November goes up, most likely December will go sideways.”
The first source noted there is a sense that US demand will be better as we move past fall outages.
“It is possible that several large mill group buyers did not buy all they wanted in October,” he added. “And Turkish demand could improve between now and then.”
Regarding the Chicago and Detroit markets in October’s trade, he surmised there was enough supply in those Midwest areas to satisfy what seemed to be still lackluster demand. (See RMU’s Stephen Miller’s column here for more on October market dynamics.)
SMU’s October scrap pricing stands at:
- Busheling at $390-420 per gross ton (gt), averaging $405, up $10 from September.
- Shredded at $380-400/gt, averaging $390, up $15 from September.
- HMS at $330-350/gt, averaging $340, up $17.50 from September.
After the settle
The first source noted that after the October trade he has seen more supply of scrap, particularly from Europe, offered to Turkish mills. He added that as a result, prices for 80/20 have fallen now $12-15/gt in just the last week.
“Waning excitement over that time about Chinese fiscal and monetary stimulus have accelerated this drop in global scrap prices,” he said. “What this means for the November ferrous trade in the US remains to be seen.”
A second source remarked that the expectation for the November/December market is to be a 60-day market as opposed to two 30-day markets.
“Suppliers are expecting another $20 increase between now and the end of the year, primarily because of lack of supply,” he said. “Consumers will most likely counter with sideways and point to lower finished steel prices and export market stalling.”

Ethan Bernard
Read more from Ethan BernardLatest in Ferrous Scrap

Export scrap market weak so far in April
The ferrous scrap export market has been thinly traded thus far in April in the Atlantic Basin.

HRC, prime scrap spread narrows in April
The price spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and prime scrap narrowed in April after widening since January, according to SMU’s most recent pricing data.

US scrap tags drop in April as tariff fog continues
US scrap prices declined in April for all the grades tracked by SMU amid tariff uncertainty, according to market sources.

Ferrous scrap prices poised for sharp declines in April
Last week, much attention was focused on President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and rightly so. They have thrown a big wrench into the market-reading business. Whether you are for them or against them, the potential outcomes are hazy, at best. Maybe we should not forget the basics, tariffs concerns notwithstanding. The basics of this ferrous […]

Scrap market chatter this month
Scrap buyers sound off on prices, demand, etc., in SMU's monthly scrap survey.