US light-vehicle sales mixed again in September

Market conditions continue trending positively, though at a modest rate. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of sales in the third quarter was 15.6 million units, the second straight quarter of negligible y/y growth.

High financing costs are still weighing on sales. However, the half percentage-point cut by the Fed in September, combined with additional cuts over the coming year, should boost sales moving into 2025.      

Auto sales fell 18.5% y/y, while light-truck sales declined 11.3% from last year. Light trucks again accounted for 81% of September’s total sales, slightly above its 80% share last year.

September’s average daily selling rate (DSR) was 50,866 vehicles – calculated over 23 days – down 1.4% from the 51,576-unit daily rate one year ago.

Figure 1 below shows the long-term picture of US sales of autos and lightweight trucks from 2019 through September 2024. Additionally, it includes the market share sales breakdown of last month’s 15.8 million vehicles at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.

While auto production has recovered from the pandemic, it remains behind 2019 levels. The trend continues to widely impact the new vehicle average transaction price (ATP) with a lack of base trim models.

September’s ATP of $48,397 was up 1.1% m/m and 1% (+$498) y/y, according to data from Cox Automotive.

Incentives rose just 0.4% m/m, reaching a 42-month high of $3,047. Incentives now represent roughly 6.3% of the ATP. Compared to last year, incentives are up nearly 70%, or $1,241.

The annualized selling rate of light trucks for September was 12.768 million units, up 3.1% vs. the prior month and 2% higher y/y. Annualized auto selling rates were up 4.4% m/m but 7.7% lower y/y.

Figure 2 details the US auto and light truck market share since 2014 and the divergence between average transaction prices and incentives in the US market since 2020.

Editor’s note: This report is based on data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), LMC Automotive, JD Power, and Cox Automotive for automotive sales in the US, Canada, and Mexico. Specifically, the report describes light-vehicle sales in the US.