Economy

New York state manufacturing falls back into contraction

Written by Laura Miller

October 15, 2024

After a brief pickup in September, manufacturing activity in New York state retreated into contraction, according to the October Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

The survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York revealed a modest contraction in manufacturing business activity in October, with the headline general business conditions index falling back 23 points to -11.9.

Note that the bank collected survey responses from manufacturing executives between Oct. 2 and Oct. 9.

The index’s fall back into contraction territory comes after a positive reading of 11.5 in September. Before that, the index’s last positive reading was in November 2023.

“Manufacturing activity contracted modestly in New York State in October, with firms reporting that new orders declined. Despite this contraction, employment expanded for the first time in a year, though by a small degree, and optimism about the outlook grew strongly,” commented Richard Deitz, the New York Fed’s economic research advisor.

While new manufacturing orders had improved in September for the first time in months, the new orders index fell 20 points to -10.2 in October.

The shipment index also dropped back into contraction territory, with October’s reading of -2.7, down 20 points from the month prior.

Inventories also dropped, with the index declining eight points to -7.5.

Though the survey showed a decline in business activity, the Fed reported growing optimism for the near-term outlook. The future business index rose eight points to a multi-year high of 38.7. The report said over half (55%) of respondents expect an improvement in conditions over the next six months.

On a three-month moving average basis (3MMA), the index fell back from a 10-month high of 0.1 in September to -1.7 in October.

An interactive history of the Empire State Manufacturing Index is available here on our website.

Laura Miller

Laura Miller is a reporter and editor for Steel Market Update. She has held a variety of positions within the steel industry since 2007, including reporting and editing for Steel Business Briefing/Platts, the Association for Iron and Steel Technology, and Kallanish Commodities, as well as marketing for what was then known as ThyssenKrupp Steel USA (now AM/NS Calvert). After a five-year hiatus working across other industries, she returned to steel in 2021 and has covered the flat rolled, tubular, and trade areas of the industry. She is a member of the Association of Women in the Metal Industries and a past-president of the AWMI Pittsburgh Chapter. She holds a BA in Latin American Studies from Edinboro University of Pennsylvania. She can be reached at laura@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7869.

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