CRU aluminum news roundup

Meanwhile, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) cash price last traded at RMB20,405/mt, up 1.8% from the Sept. 26 close.

Both the LME three-month price and the SHFE rallied following the stimulus package announcement by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC).

China’s central bank announced its largest stimulus since the pandemic to combat deflation and to support economic growth. The comprehensive package includes increased funding and interest rate cuts. It aims to restore confidence in the economy amid disappointing data.

But analysts caution that additional fiscal measures are essential to meet growth targets. And even as the PBoC has rolled out the monetary easing measures, the fiscal stimulus measures are still being finalized. The Politburo meeting primarily outlined the policy direction. We expect further announcements regarding specific fiscal measures in the coming days or after the Golden Week holiday in China (Oct. 1-7).

US Department of Commerce makes final ruling on lithographic imports

The US Department of Commerce announced on Monday, Sept. 23, a final anti-dumping ruling on aluminum lithographic printing plates imported from China and Japan.

Commerce said that the dumping rate by Chinese exporters ranged between 115.85–317.44% and 91.83–160.11% for Japanese exporters. The US International Trade Commission (ITC) is expected to make a final ruling on anti-dumping and countervailing duty damages on the above-mentioned products on Nov. 4, 2024. The case involves products under the US customs code 3701.30.0000.

Recall that on Oct. 19, 2023, the US Department of Commerce initiated anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on aluminum lithographic printing plates imported from China as well as anti-dumping investigations on aluminum lithographic printing plates imported from Japan.

Hydro and Mercedes-Benz launch new partnership in Brazil

Hydro and Mercedes-Benz have announced a new partnership to collaborate on a long-term program in the Brazilian Amazon. The so-called “Corridor” program aims to positively impact both people and nature in the region.

The program will see Hydro and Mercedes-Benz join forces along with Brazilian NGOs IPAM, Imazon, and CEA as well as Boston Consulting Group and other partners. The aim is to protect human rights, income for local communities, and the development of low-carbon value chains in the region.

Specifically, the groups hope to create a positive social impact along the bauxite slurry pipeline operated by Hydro in Brazil. The pipeline stretches stretching 151 miles through seven municipalities in the State of Para, from Hydro’s bauxite mine in Paragominas to the Alunorte alumina refinery in Barcarena.

The partnership builds on the commercial agreement already existing between Hydro and Mercedes-Benz. In 2022, the companies committed to collaborate on a joint technology roadmap aiming to develop aluminum solutions approved for automotive applications with a CO2 footprint below 3.0 kgCO2/kgAl. The ambition is to approach near-zero aluminum toward 2030.

IAI update: IAI numbers indicate 1.5% y/y growth in global output in August

The International Aluminium Association (IAI) recently released primary production data for August 2024. Total worldwide production on an annualized basis came in at 73.0 million mt. That is down marginally month over month (m/m) from the revised July number and up 1.5% year over year (y/y). Production in world ex. China in August was reported at 29.4 Mt, down 0.2% versus July.

The IAI also made minor revisions to their previous production estimates. Output in Africa was revised down in May 2024 by 1,000 mt. Output in Asia ex. China and Oceania were also revised down by 1,000 mt for the month of July 2024. Chinese production was revised up by 1,000 mt for the same month but revised down by 5,000 mt for June 2024. Unreported stocks were revised back in January 2023. For the period of January–December 2023, unreported stocks were revised up by an average of 11,300 mt. For the period of January–July 2024, they were revised down by 6,700 mt.

For Chinese production, the IAI estimated annualized August output at 43.6 million mt (Mmt). That’s down marginally from the revised July number and up 1.6% y/y. Curtailed capacity in Yunnan is now restarted. However, Yunnan Hongtai continues to operate at 1.48 Mmt per year. Yunnan Honghe is also operating below full capacity. Currently there is no timetable for a ramp-up at these smelters. CRU’s annualized production number for August is above the estimate reported by the IAI, at 43.7 Mmt/y and follows the fluctuating trend by the NBS numbers.

Editor’s note: This article was first published by CRU. To learn more about CRU’s services, visit www.crugroup.com.