Get your muck boots out: Galv buyers see 'swampy' steel market continuing

HARDI’s Sheet Metal/Air Handling Council met virtually for its monthly meeting on Tuesday, Aug. 20. Council members are service centers, distributors, and manufacturers active in the Heating, Air-Conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) association.

Wait-and-see market

The call’s moderator said the steel market in the US seems to be in a wait-and-see mode after the steady, drawn-out deflationary period that characterized most of 2024.

Another member said this week’s SMU steel buyers’ survey data, shared by SMU Managing Editor Michael Cowden on the call, “pretty much supports everything I’m about to say.” He then said there is plenty of supply in the market, mill lead times are still relatively short, demand is stable, and inventories are slightly above average.

He said he felt the market was nearing a bottom after last month’s council call, so he began building inventory levels. So, “We have a little bit higher-than-average inventory currently,” he revealed.

Another buyer remarked that their inventories are right where they want them to be after one of their best Julys.

The moderator called attention to the fact that “there is more momentum for higher prices” now than there has been all year.

Call it a floor or an inflection point, “however you want to characterize it: prices have leveled off,” he stated.

In SMU’s check of the market on Tuesday, buyers reported an average price of $905 per short ton (st) for galvanized sheet. Galv prices have steadily crept higher over the past month, but are still only $35/st higher than a month ago.

Another HARDI member noted that pricing is “firm” but is not shooting up.

He said his company saw higher volumes in July and August. This could be “related to the steel market potentially bottoming. Or at least it’s getting to a price point where contractors are more comfortable taking a position,” he surmised.

“Is this a dead cat bounce? Is this just a pause? Or is this truly an inflection point?” the moderator questioned.

We’ll have to wait and see…

Strap on your muck boots if you haven’t already

If you’ve never eaten alligator before, “you’re about to, because we’re going to be in a swamp for the next 60 days or so, and it’s going to be murky and sticky,” according to one member on the call.

Demand is far from normal, he said, and folks are waiting – for interest rates to fall, for November’s election results, for any stability.

Once the dust settles after November, we “might get some surge in demand. But for now, it’s going to be pretty, pretty swampy,” the member said.

Another HARDI member agreed that people are sitting on the sidelines and waiting to see what happens with the election.

“I’m just getting a little tired of being in this mush market,” he lamented.

Predictions on galvanized prices

The survey results from this month’s HARDI call were little changed from July’s predictions.

Over half (58%) of HARDI members predicted this month that galvanized prices will be basically flat (+/- $40/st) a month from now. Still, another third (35%) think prices will be $40-80/st higher.

Looking six months out, 64% of members think galv prices will be up by $40-120/st, while 24% think they’ll be flat. Another 12% predict a rise of more than $120/st.

The majority of members (68%) on the call foresee galvanized prices being $1,000-1,199/st a year from now. Still, 16% predict $800-999/st, and 12% say $1,200-1,399/st.

SMU participates in a monthly steel conference call hosted by HARDI and dedicated to better understanding the galvanized steel market. The participants are HARDI member companies, wholesalers who supply products to the construction markets. Also on the call are service centers and manufacturing companies that either buy or sell galvanized sheet and coil products used in the HVAC industry and are suppliers to the HARDI member companies.