Economy

Manufacturing activity in New York state still down

Written by David Schollaert

August 15, 2024

New York state’s manufacturing activity improved in August but remained in contraction territory, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The Survey’s General Business Conditions Index rose by 1.9 points this month to a reading of -4.7. This marks the ninth consecutive month of negative readings.

Last year, the index peaked at 10.8 in June and has only indicated improving business conditions in nine of the last 32 months.

Manufacturing activity slipped in August, driven by modest declines in new orders and weak labor conditions due to “a small decline in employment and a sharp drop in hours worked,” commented New York Fed economic research advisor Richard Deitz. “Firms continued to be somewhat optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead.”

The new orders index fell 7.3 points this month after staying flat for the previous two months, while the inventories index indicated lower stocks for a second straight month. Firms remain “fairly” optimistic about future business conditions, as 45% of respondents expect improvement over the next six months. The full release is available here.

On a three-month moving average basis (3MMA), the index rose in August to its highest reading of the year, -5.77 (see Figure 1). Recall that in March, the Index reached -22.33, the fourth-lowest 3MMA figure within our 15-year data history, which was only higher than the months of April, May, and June 2020.

An interactive history of the Empire State Manufacturing Index is available here on our website.

David Schollaert

David Schollaert is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update. David joined SMU after more than a decade in the metals and mining industry in a myriad of different roles. Much of his early experience and expertise were within the coverage and analysis of steel-making raw materials and served previously as senior editor of the CRU Prices Service. Most recently, however, before his return to market analysis, David held roles as a metals buyer and an operations manager for raw material suppliers. Based in CRU’s Pittsburgh office, David can be reached at david@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-720-1008.

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