Market Chatter This Week

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Are steel prices near a peak? If not, when and at what price level do you think prices will peak, and why?

“Yes, it is improving. Mills have started to ship December releases.”

“Prices will peak in March 2023. Booking for that time would be made in January. I expect $1,200 per ton for HRC.”

“Near peak. $950 per ton. Demand not as robust as folks would like us to believe.”

”No. Mills will likely try for more.” 

“I don’t think we’re ‘peaking’ yet. There is still too much bullishness out there. I do worry about a Q1 reversal, though.”

”Mills trying to get to $1,000/net ton, but I do not think demand can support this.”

“I would think we are at the top or close to it. Cliffs wanted $1,000/ton for HR, and they got it.”

”I would think we are close to a peak, but history would tell you that the mills could press the prices higher.  It appears that Nucor, ArcelorMittal, and U.S. Steel coming out under Cliffs is a responsible move to try and keep prices elevated for longer.”

“Pricing will peak by end of December, as demand is still weak and will peak at $1,025 per ton.”

”Probably not with all the panic buying.”

“Not at peak yet. This market has wings, and mills will continue to increase price through at least January 2024.”

“Discrete plate, yes, peaked for the moment. Possible additional pullback in Q4 but not expected.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable – and why?

“Improving slightly.”

”Demand is steady, and buying is improving.”

“Declining because folks are nervous about the economy and steel prices.”

”Demand is remaining stable, and that seems to be the case for most folks.”

“It’s varied. Some days are good, and some days are not.”

”Demand is improving, now that buyers are comfortable building inventory again with prices rising.  Automotive reaching tentative agreements with the union, contract prices back in favor of spot, and buyers are working to lock up contracts.”

“Declining as overall economy is slowing, and a spike of of demand in automotive has not materialized yet.”

“Slight increase, but not much.”

“Stable in November compared to the rest of the second half of 2023.”

“Discrete plate is stable to declining due to seasonality reasons and higher interest rates delaying some projects.”

Are imports more attractive vs. domestic material? Why or why not?

“Imports are attractive due to having a lower price than domestics.”

“Yes, but soon they won’t be. Arrival is too late.” 

“Imports are certainly looking better and better, especially if you have the backlog to be patient for their arrival.”

“No, arrival time is too long to get in.”

“Imports are more attractive from a pricing standpoint, but long lead times and buyers are not willing to make long-term commitments.”

“Yes, pricing is now significantly cheaper.”

“For coil, not yet, but for finished product, yes.”

“For plate, import pricing is attractive compared to domestic pricing, but lead times are too long.”

“Not attractive on plate. There are price and quality concerns on import plate. It’s too risky.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“USS-UPI is closing, and the tight West Coast steel market is not much of a concern these days.”

“The value-add arms race and Evraz’s sale status.”

“I know we’re all talking about imports, but how about AHMSA? And likewise, I know we’re all talking about U.S. Steel (on the M&A front) but how about Evraz?”

“Inventory on hand after the UAW strike is settled.”

“People are talking about it, but it appears U.S. Steel being sold is going to happen sooner rather than later. So, how will that change the direction going forward?”

“Offshore supply chain and challenges that still exist due to strikes and logistical costs (shipping).”

“With ocean freight rates so low, Chinese imported finished goods are flooding the US market.”

“Military spending and ramp-up to support new conflicts.”