Reshoring Helping to Push Ternium's Shipments Higher in Mexico

The country’s industrial real estate sector has a national occupancy rate of 97%, he noted, and that rate is even higher at 99% if you consider just the northern part of the country. While there was not much of a change in steel consumption within Mexico in Q1 this year vs. last year, said Vedoya, Ternium’s shipments in the country were 500,000 metric tons higher year over year. Additionally, Q1 shipments improved 10% sequentially, reaching an all-time high of 2.1 million metric tons, “reflecting Ternium’s increased market share,” said CFO Pablo Brizzio. The company expects to see sustained or slightly higher shipments in the current quarter and to continue that trend through the remainder of the year. By year’s end, shipments are anticipated to be 20-25% higher than last year. “We are increasing our market share, especially in the automotive industry, as the certification process of new products from the new hot rolling mill in Pesqueria advances,” Vedoya said. The hot rolling mill is currently running at about 88% of capacity and the company is attempting to increase production in the older mill. “So we have some space, but we don’t have a lot of space to increase much more of our shipments,” he noted. “Apparent steel demand in the Mexican market remains healthy,” Vedoya stated, with restocking that began in Q4 of last year not yet showing signs of slowing. The reshoring trend should increase demand further, he said, with some of Ternium’s own customers increasing their capacities and new customers also requiring much more steel. The only potential negative impact could come from the macroeconomic environment with rising interest rates and “a so-called recession in the US,” Vedoya noted. Having spoken of a potential recession for several quarters now, however, customers are now expecting “a softening, but they don’t expect a huge recession,” he said.    By Laura Miller, laura@steelmarketupdate.com