May New Home Sales Expand Amid Headwinds: NAHB

“Though new home sales registered a solid increase in May, we expect sales to decline in June following the Fed’s action to significantly raise interest rates in an effort to cool the economy and ease inflation,” said Jerry Konter, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder and developer in Savannah, Ga. “High construction costs and rising mortgage rates are pricing many buyers out of the market. Only 10% of new homes were priced below $300,000 in May, compared to 23% a year ago.”

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction, or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the May reading of 696,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

Regionally, new home sales fell in all four regions on a year-to-date basis: the Northeast slipped 3.8%, the Midwest fell 21.7%, the South dropped 12.3%, and the West dipped 2.2%

“While sales were up in May, the 696,000 pace was 5.9% lower than a year ago, and new home sales on a year-to-date basis are down 10.6% thus far in 2022,” NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said. “Moreover, the months’ supply measure is elevated at 7.7. But existing home inventory remains very tight, and this supports demand for new construction.”

New single-family home inventory remained elevated at a 7.7 months’ supply, up 42.6% over last year, with 444,000 available for sale in May. However, only 8.3% of new home inventory is completed and ready to occupy. The remainder have not started construction (25.9%) or are currently under construction.

The median sales price dipped to $449,000 in May from $454,700 in April but is up 15% compared to the same year-ago period, due primarily to higher construction and development costs, including for materials.

By David Schollaert, David@SteelMarketUpdate.com