Economy

Empire State Manufacturing Index Falls in March

Written by David Schollaert

March 15, 2022

Business activity in the state of New York waned in March, declining for the first time since the onset of the global pandemic nearly two years ago, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

New YorkThe headline general business conditions index is now at -11.8 (above the neutral mark of 0), falling 15 points from February’s 3.1, and the lowest reading since May 2020. New orders and shipments declined modestly, delivery times lengthened substantially, while unfilled orders and inventories expanded.

The new orders index was down 12.6 points to a -11.2 reading after gaining nearly 7 points in February. Shipments were down 10.3 points to a reading of -7.4 for the month. Labor market indicators pointed to a modest increase in employment and a slightly longer average workweek.

Unfilled orders edged down 1.3 points to 13.1, while delivery times expanded 11.1 points to a reading of 32.7 in March. The inventories index moved higher, extending by 9.8 points to a reading of 21.5.

Prices paid slipped by 3.0 points in March to an index reading of 73.8. Prices received rose this month by 2 points to 56.1. The number of employees also fell in March by 8.6 points to 14.5 from 23.1 the month prior. The average workweek index was 3.5, down 7.4 points versus January’s reading of 10.9.

Despite the downward move in March, the six-month outlook remained generally optimistic. The index for future business conditions climbed seven points to a reading of 36.6 in March versus February, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said.

Longer delivery times, higher prices and increases in employment are all expected in the months ahead, while capital spending plans remained firm. New orders rose by 8.6 points to 41.1 in March, while shipments gained 9.7 points to a measure of 42.3.

The indexes for future prices paid and received both expanded after losing ground in February. Future prices paid rose 2.6 points to 72.9, while future prices received was up 7.5 in March to a reading of 58.9. The capital expenditures index slipped by 2.3 points to 35.5 after holding near a multi-year high, suggesting that firms still plan for significant increases in capital spending. The technology spending index fell 6.3 points for the second straight month to a measure of 23.4 in February.

EmpireStateManuf. March

An interactive history of the Empire State Manufacturing Index is available on our website. If you need assistance logging into or navigating the website, please contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.

By David Schollaert, David@SteelMarketUpdate.com

 

David Schollaert

David Schollaert is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update. David joined SMU after more than a decade in the metals and mining industry in a myriad of different roles. Much of his early experience and expertise were within the coverage and analysis of steel-making raw materials and served previously as senior editor of the CRU Prices Service. Most recently, however, before his return to market analysis, David held roles as a metals buyer and an operations manager for raw material suppliers. Based in CRU’s Pittsburgh office, David can be reached at david@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-720-1008.

Read more from David Schollaert

Latest in Economy

CRU: Dollar and bond yields rise, metal prices fall as Trump wins election

Donald Trump has won the US presidential election. The Republican party has re-taken control of the Senate. Votes are still being counted in many tight congressional races. But based on results so far, the Republicans seem likely to maintain control of the House of Representatives. If confirmed, this will give Trump considerable scope to pass legislation pursuing his agenda. What this means for US policy is not immediately obvious. Trump will not be inaugurated until Jan. 20. In the coming weeks and months, he will begin to assemble his cabinet, which may give a clearer signal on his policy priorities and approaches. Based on statements he made during the presidential campaign, we have set out the likely direction of his economic policy here and green policy here.