SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Declines Continue
Written by Tim Triplett
January 6, 2022
Lead times on spot orders from domestic steel mills continue to decline, with no sign yet of how soon they might level out. Declining lead times are a leading indicator of declining steel prices.
The average lead time for hot rolled is now approaching four and a half weeks, while cold rolled and galvanized are down around seven weeks, based on Steel Market Update’s check of the market in the first week of the New Year. (SMU measures lead times as the time it takes from when an order is placed with the mill to when the order is processed and ready for shipping, not including delivery time to the buyer.)
Buyers polled by SMU this week reported mill lead times ranging from 3-8 weeks for hot rolled, 4-10 weeks for cold rolled, 4-11 weeks for galvanized, 5-10 weeks for Galvalume, and 4-8 weeks for plate.
The average lead time for hot rolled has declined to 4.69 weeks from 4.92 two weeks ago. Cold rolled lead times now average 6.99 weeks, a decline from 7.53 prior to the Christmas holiday. Galvanized lead times dipped to 7.21 weeks from 7.50 in the same timeframe. The average Galvalume lead time is down by nearly a week to about 8.0 weeks.
Mill lead times for plate are now at 6.07 weeks, up slightly from the third week in December. But that increase might reflect a limited number of transactions during the holiday period.
Lead times are the shortest they have been in nearly a year and a half after hitting historic highs in 2021. But like prices, it appears they have more room to slide before reaching a new normal.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
By Tim Triplett, Tim@SteelMarketUpdate.com
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices stable to start 2025
Both SMU Steel Buyers' Sentiment Indices remain in positive territory, indicating that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times short and steady to start 2025
Buyers participating in our first market survey of 2025 reported a slight decline in mill lead times compared to our last survey in mid-December. After rising moderately in early December, lead times edged lower through this week and are now only slightly above the lows seen back in July and November. Overall, production times have remained historically short since last summer, with minimal movement since then.
SMU’s December at a glance
SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of important steel market metrics for the previous month. Our latest report includes data updated through December 31st.
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices contrast at year end
Both of our Sentiment Indices remain in positive territory and indicate that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times contract slightly, remain short
Steel mill production times have seen very little change since September, according to buyers participating in our latest market survey.