SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Within a Week of Normal
Written by Tim Triplett
December 22, 2021
In line with the declining steel prices, lead times for spot orders from the mills continue to shorten with the average for hot rolled now below five weeks and cold rolled and galvanized now below eight weeks, based on Steel Market Update’s check of the market on Monday and Tuesday. Lead times for all products are the shortest they have been in 2021 and are comparable to where they were in September/October 2020. Lead times are a sign of activity at the mill level and are considered a leading indicator of finished steel prices.
Buyers polled by SMU this week reported mill lead times ranging from 3-9 weeks for hot rolled, 5-10 weeks for cold rolled, 5-11 weeks for galvanized, 8-10 weeks for Galvalume, and 4-6 weeks for plate.
The average lead time for hot rolled has declined to 4.92 weeks from 5.04 weeks in mid-December. Cold rolled lead times now average 7.53 weeks, a decline from 8.35 two weeks ago. Galvanized lead times dipped to 7.50 weeks from 8.19 weeks in the same period. The average Galvalume lead time remains about the same at 8.83 weeks.
Like sheet products, mill lead times for plate also continue to shorten. The average plate lead time moved down to 5.40 weeks from the 6.38 weeks seen in SMU’s market check two weeks ago.
To put those numbers in perspective, hot rolled lead times have averaged 4.59 weeks, cold rolled lead times 6.59 weeks and galvanized lead times 6.92 weeks in data gathered by SMU over the past decade. Therefore, lead times are now within a week of being what might be considered “normal” after a long period of historic highs.
By Tim Triplett, Tim@SteelMarketUpdate.com
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices stable to start 2025
Both SMU Steel Buyers' Sentiment Indices remain in positive territory, indicating that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times short and steady to start 2025
Buyers participating in our first market survey of 2025 reported a slight decline in mill lead times compared to our last survey in mid-December. After rising moderately in early December, lead times edged lower through this week and are now only slightly above the lows seen back in July and November. Overall, production times have remained historically short since last summer, with minimal movement since then.
SMU’s December at a glance
SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of important steel market metrics for the previous month. Our latest report includes data updated through December 31st.
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices contrast at year end
Both of our Sentiment Indices remain in positive territory and indicate that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times contract slightly, remain short
Steel mill production times have seen very little change since September, according to buyers participating in our latest market survey.