SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Hot Rolled Down to Five Weeks
Written by Tim Triplett
December 9, 2021
Lead times for steel sheet and plate continued to decline over the past two weeks, shortening by an average of more than a week. The move correlates with a sharp downtrend in steel prices.
Steel Market Update’s latest check of the market shows the average lead time for hot rolled orders nearing five weeks. Cold rolled and coated lead times are approaching eight weeks. That’s still 1-2 weeks longer than historical averages but far below the peaks of 11-13 weeks seen earlier this year. Current lead times are also the shortest they have been since September/October 2020, according to SMU data.
Buyers polled by SMU this week reported mill lead times ranging from 3-8 weeks for hot rolled, 5-12 weeks for cold rolled, 4-12 weeks for galvanized, 8-10 weeks for Galvalume, and 4-8 weeks for plate.
The average lead time for spot orders of hot rolled has declined to 5.04 weeks from 6.09 weeks in late November. Cold rolled lead times now average 8.35 weeks, a decline from 9.13 two weeks ago. Galvanized lead times dipped to 8.19 weeks from 9.42 weeks in the same period. The average Galvalume lead time moved down to 8.83 weeks from 10.20 weeks.
Like sheet products, mill lead times for plate also continue to shorten. The average plate lead time moved down to 6.38 weeks from the 7.20 weeks seen in SMU’s market check two weeks ago.
Lead times are a sign of activity and demand at the mill level and are considered a leading indicator of finished steel prices.
By Tim Triplett, Tim@SteelMarketUpdate.com
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index jumps, Future Sentiment slips
SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index rocketed up this week, while the Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index edged down. The two indices are almost at parity.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times stretch to 10-month highs
Buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that steel mill lead times were stretching out this week for sheet and plate products tracked by SMU. The results weren’t much of a surprise. Production times have begun moving out following a wave of frenzied buying in response to stricter Section 232 announced by the Trump […]
SMU Survey: Mills slam door on buyers looking to talk price
Mills’ flexibility on price for spot orders has taken a nosedive to levels not seen since the end of March 2023.
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment indicates increased optimism
After reaching multi-month lows in mid-January, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebounded this week to some of the highest readings recorded in months.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times fluctuate, extensions expected
While we have seen some movements in recent weeks, steel mill production times remain within a few days of the historical lows observed over the last two years, a trend observed since mid-2024.