SMU Data and Models

Steel Mill Lead Times: Hot Rolled Down to Five Weeks
Written by Tim Triplett
December 9, 2021
Lead times for steel sheet and plate continued to decline over the past two weeks, shortening by an average of more than a week. The move correlates with a sharp downtrend in steel prices.
Steel Market Update’s latest check of the market shows the average lead time for hot rolled orders nearing five weeks. Cold rolled and coated lead times are approaching eight weeks. That’s still 1-2 weeks longer than historical averages but far below the peaks of 11-13 weeks seen earlier this year. Current lead times are also the shortest they have been since September/October 2020, according to SMU data.
Buyers polled by SMU this week reported mill lead times ranging from 3-8 weeks for hot rolled, 5-12 weeks for cold rolled, 4-12 weeks for galvanized, 8-10 weeks for Galvalume, and 4-8 weeks for plate.
The average lead time for spot orders of hot rolled has declined to 5.04 weeks from 6.09 weeks in late November. Cold rolled lead times now average 8.35 weeks, a decline from 9.13 two weeks ago. Galvanized lead times dipped to 8.19 weeks from 9.42 weeks in the same period. The average Galvalume lead time moved down to 8.83 weeks from 10.20 weeks.
Like sheet products, mill lead times for plate also continue to shorten. The average plate lead time moved down to 6.38 weeks from the 7.20 weeks seen in SMU’s market check two weeks ago.
Lead times are a sign of activity and demand at the mill level and are considered a leading indicator of finished steel prices.
By Tim Triplett, Tim@SteelMarketUpdate.com

Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Mills unlikely to budge on price, buyers say
Four out of every five steel buyers who responded to our latest market survey say domestic mills are unwilling to negotiate on new order spot pricing. Mills have shown little flexibility on pricing for nearly two months.

SMU’s March at a glance
SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of our key steel market metrics for the previous month, with the latest data updated through March 31.

SMU Survey: Steel buyers maintain confident market outlook
SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices showed mixed movements this week but remain strong, reflecting continued confidence among steel buyers.

SMU Survey: Perspectives differ on impact of Trump tariffs
Are President Trump's tariff policies helping? Steel buyers offer their opinions on the impact of Trump's tariffs.

SMU Survey: Lead times stabilize as tariff-induced buying slows
After a multi-week increase, buyers responding to our market survey this week reported that lead times are stabilizing or marginally declining for each of the sheet and plate products we track.