SMU Data and Models
Mill Lead Times Extend to Record Lengths
Written by John Packard
June 11, 2021
Flat rolled and plate steel mill lead times continue to extend, according to the results of this week’s flat rolled and plate steel analysis conducted by Steel Market Update. Hot rolled lead times have sustained 10 weeks or more for a month – the first time that has happened in the history of our records, which go back to 2011. We are also seeing record extended lead times on cold rolled, galvanized, Galvalume and plate steels.
Hot rolled lead times are now averaging 10.63 weeks, according to the manufacturing companies and service centers participating in this week’s survey. To put this into perspective, the 10.63 weeks is 2.76 weeks longer than what was being reported to SMU at the beginning of January 2021. One year ago, HRC lead times were 7 weeks shorter than what we are reporting today. The historical average HRC lead time (measured prior to the beginning of the current cycle, which began in August 2020) has been 4 weeks (3.98 weeks) based on our past survey data.
Cold rolled lead times exceeded 12.5 weeks for the first time in the history of our records. This week lead times on cold rolled coil reached 12.65 weeks. At the beginning of 2021 CRC lead times were more than 3 weeks shorter (3.22 weeks) than what we are reporting today. One year ago, CRC lead times were 5.71 weeks, or about 7 weeks shorter than today. The historical average prior to the current up cycle is 6 weeks (5.98 weeks), or half what they are today.
Galvanized lead times are being reported today as being 13.02 weeks (essentially unchanged from two weeks ago) and almost 3 weeks longer than the 10.25 weeks we reported at the beginning of 2021. Last year GI lead times were at 6 weeks (5.95 weeks). The historical average prior to the current up cycle, which began in August 2020, is 6.30 weeks, or about half what they are today.
Galvalume lead times are being reported to be at 15.00 weeks this week. This is slightly less than the record 15.40 weeks reported on May 13, but well above the 11 weeks we reported at the beginning 2021. One year ago, AZ lead times were 6.00 weeks, or 9 weeks shorter than today. The historical average prior to the current up cycle, which began in August 2020, is 6.58 weeks, more than half of what they are today.
Plate steel lead times are also at record extended levels at 9.70 weeks. At the beginning 2021 we reported plate lead times as being 8 weeks (8.13 weeks), which is about two weeks shorter than today’s levels. One year ago, plate lead times averaged 4 weeks, less than half what we are reporting them to be today.
The SMU Mill Lead Times are based on the average of responses received from manufacturing companies and service centers in this week’s survey. Actual mill lead times will vary by producer and individual rolling mills. To get the exact lead time being quoted by an individual steel mill, please contact your mill representative. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
By John Packard, John@SteelMarketUpdate.com
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment rebounds from multi-year low
Both of SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices edged higher this week. Current Sentiment rebounded from a near five-year low, while Future Sentiment rose to a two-month high
SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.
SMU Survey: Sheet lead times pull back after early-June blip, plate holds
Following the uptick seen two weeks ago, lead times eased this week for all four sheet products tracked by SMU, while plate lead times held steady, according to this week’s market survey.
SMU Survey: Pricing power abruptly shifts to steel buyers
The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey say domestic mills are more willing to talk price on sheet and plate products than they were earlier this month. Sheet negotiation rates rebounded across the board compared to early June, while our plate negotiation rate hit a full 100%.
Service centers: Mill orders down marginally in May
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a third straight month in May, but only marginally.