SMU Data and Models

Steel Mill Lead Times: Extend Even Further

October 29, 2020

Lead times for spot orders of steel continue to extend with hot rolled delivery now averaging more than six and a half weeks and coated steel orders around eight and a half weeks. Lead times are an indicator of steel demand—longer lead times mean the mills have more orders to process and are less likely to negotiate on prices.

According to Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week, current hot rolled lead times average 6.58 weeks, up from 6.15 two weeks ago and 5.78 at this time last month. HR lead times have doubled since hitting 3.25 weeks at the low point in April.

Cold rolled lead times are at 8.39 weeks, up from 7.77 weeks in SMU’s prior check of the market and 7.17 at this point last month. Cold rolled lead times are three weeks longer than in late April.

Galvanized lead times are have jumped out to 8.61 weeks, up from 7.73 weeks a month ago. The current average Galvalume lead time is up to 9.23 weeks as supplies of that product remain especially tight.

Plate lead times are slightly extended at 5.60 weeks, but have been fairly flat over the past two months as weakness in key plate markets has tempered demand and pricing.

The market is keeping a close watch for a change of direction in lead times, which might suggest steel prices are beginning to peak, but there’s no sign of any shortening so far.

Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.