Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
October 19, 2020
I made a boo-boo when disclosing the date for Dr. Schultz doing one of our SMU Community Chat Webinars. The webinar will be on OCTOBER 28TH, not this Wednesday as was originally advertised. My apologies to those who were looking forward to listening to Dr. Schultz this week. I have information about the webinar a little further down in my Final Thoughts this evening.
As we conducted our market analysis over the past two days, we found lead times referenced as continuing to extend, meaning it is taking longer to get orders placed this week than it did a few weeks back. Many mills have sold out their production through the month of December and have not yet begun the process of taking orders for January.
Late last week and early this week, the plate mills raised prices by $50 per ton. Plate prices have not jumped as quickly as flat rolled and lead times (according to our data providers) have not extended quite as radically as the flat rolled mills. We do have our SMU Price Momentum Indicator pointing toward higher prices on plate products over the next 30 to 60 days.
There has been no change to the status of negotiations between NLMK Farrell, Pa., and their union. The strike continues while salaried employees run most of the equipment.
My opinion – I have a difficult time understanding strikes by unions against companies like NLMK. The workers are striking over hundreds of dollars and in the process they are losing thousands of dollars that can never be recouped. This is not to say strikes aren’t necessary when there are truly issues that need to be addressed to improve the lives and livelihoods of workers and their families, but most should be able to be handled without taking workers off the job.
SMU will conduct one of our free SMU Community Chat Webinars on Wednesday, Oct. 28, at 11 a.m. ET. Our guest speaker is Dr. David Schultz, Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Legal Studies at Hamline University. Dr. Schultz is a recognized expert on elections down to the precinct level. He has been watching the state and local polling and will have his forecast for the presidency as well as Senate and House seats that are being contested this year. You can register for the free webinar by clicking here or by going to www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/blog/smu-community-chat-webinars
Fourteen days to go….
One of my pet peeves during every presidential election cycle is the belief that the stock market does better under a Republican president rather than a Democrat. History has shown that is not true, and during the first 44 months of a president’s term (where we are currently with the Trump administration) two Democrats (Clinton and Obama) did better than every other president since Nixon (who was one of the bottom three). Of course, there are extenuating circumstances for every president, and no one knows what will happen over the next four years (for example, we did not plan on there being a pandemic back in 2016).
This is not meant as an endorsement for Biden – it is rather a reminder to vote for the person or team you believe will do a better job running the country, dealing with our adversaries, and protecting our citizens. Voting based on perceived market returns is a fool’s errand.
With that said, please don’t forget to vote.
We are in the middle of conducting our first virtual Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals Workshop. We have another large class this week, and we anticipate another good class on Dec. 8-9 when we conduct our second virtual Steel 101 workshop. We will begin taking registrations for that workshop beginning on Thursday, Oct. 22.
If you have any questions about any events/workshops, please feel free to reach out to me. I can be reached at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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