Final Thoughts
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/media/k2/items/src/cc0081cfb052fca3dd921aa731715a17.jpg)
Final Thoughts
Written by Tim Triplett
August 26, 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic has clearly taken a toll on the attitudes of many industry executives. The pessimism is evident in some of the responses to polling conducted during the SMU Virtual Steel Summit this week.
We asked the hundreds of executives on the site: Where do you believe steel demand will be at this time next year compared with today? About 54 percent, the majority, said down more than 10 percent from where we are now. Really? Consider all the comments by the experts on various panels who suggested that the economy and steel market are on the rebound. We may not get all the way back to where we were before the pandemic in just one year, but surely we will make progress from where we are today.
We also asked the attendees: Where do you predict the U.S. price of hot rolled steel will be at this time next year? The majority view was under $400 per ton. Shockingly low. More than 80 percent predict the hot rolled price will be $475 or less. Even under today’s difficult market conditions, SMU pegs the current benchmark price for HR at $485. With the mills announcing increases on flat rolled and plate products this week, and scrap prices poised to rise in September, the price momentum is pointing upwards at the moment. Let’s hope the economy and steel demand continue to recover and can support even higher prices next year.
If you haven’t done so already, be sure to take in the two recorded presentations by Dr. Alan Beaulieu of ITR Economics. His theme: “Planning with Optimism.” I found his analysis of the economy quite encouraging, at least for the near term. As he said, “The government stimulus this year will create an afterglow in 2021 and 2022. You’re going to be fine.”
SMU’s virtual summit, featuring some 48 different speakers, was a lot to take in. Especially from your home or office (which is one in the same for most of us these days) where distractions abound. Not to worry, you have another three weeks to revisit anything you may have missed. The conference platform will remain open and live through Sept. 18. You can watch, or rewatch, all the presentations and the follow-up Q&As, and you can chat with anyone who happens to be online, including sponsors in the Exhibition Hall.
We welcome your feedback and constructive criticisms. Send a note to Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com and let us know what you thought of our first virtual event. We hope to see you all in person at next year’s summit, but with the way this scary virus is behaving, you never know.
For those who appreciated the political analysis and insights offered by Professor Dave Schultz of Hamline University, he is available and happy to speak to your company or other groups about the election and related topics. His contact information is below:
Professor David Schultz
Hamline University
Department of Political Science and Department of Legal Studies
1536 Hewitt Ave, MS B 1805
St. Paul, Minnesota 55104
651.523.2858 (voice)
http://davidschultz.efoliomn.com/
http://works.bepress.com/david_schultz/
http://schultzstake.blogspot.com/
Twitter: @ProfDSchultz
My latest book: Presidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
Tim Triplett, Executive Editor
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/04/tim-triplett.jpeg)
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in Final Thoughts
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/images/Featured_News_Icons/gears.png)
Final thoughts
Sheet prices didn’t roar back after Labor Day. But steel market news sure came out of the gate strong (or maybe chaotically is the better way to put it). First, the nearly $15-billion proposed sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel exploded into the news. And when I say exploded, I mean that all sides seem to be escalating things now.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/images/Featured_News_Icons/gears.png)
Final thoughts
Welcome back from Labor Day, from Steel Summit, and from whatever fun you might have had over the long weekend. Personally, I enjoyed camping with friends and family near Starved Rock. No one starved, there were no major injuries, and we enjoyed the many splendors of Mystical Fire. (Speaking of which, does that have industrial uses? But I digress.)
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/11/SMU-Steel-Summit.png)
Final thoughts
I want to say a huge ‘thank you’ from all of us at SMU to all of you (more than 1,500!) who attended Steel Summit this year. We appreciate you taking time out of busy schedules to join us – whether that was up on stage, submitting thoughtful questions, or catching up over a drink and bite to eat. Also, a bit shoutout to everyone at SMU and at CRU who made this event possible. It’s no understatement to say that we have a fantastic team.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/11/SMU-Steel-Summit.png)
Final thoughts
Day one and two of SMU's Steel Summit 2024 are officially in the books. We covered a lot of ground, and the agenda sure did deliver.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/11/SMU-Steel-Summit.png)
Final thoughts
The big show is just about here. SMU Steel Summit will be getting underway on Monday. Where does the networking begin? I’d say at the airport. So don’t forget your business cards. And it can't hurt to wear a company golf shirt.