Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by Tim Triplett
August 10, 2020
The service center and manufacturer executives who read Steel Market Update have been telling us for some time that they believe steel prices are near the bottom and poised to turn around soon. Our latest check of the market, with flat rolled steel prices up anywhere from $15 to $25 per ton, suggests the market may have turned a corner.
A price increase announcement from the EAF mills sometime soon would surprise no one. The integrated mills tried it about a month ago, but the move proved premature and prices gained little ground. This week, the majority (56 percent) of those responding to SMU’s market trends questionnaire said they believe steel demand has now improved to the point where such a price hike could be successful. That means 44 percent are still doubtful, though. Not exactly a slam dunk yet.
Here’s some of their comments:
“I believe the EAF producers will get an increase of no more than $40/ton, unless scrap continues to move down.”
“Prices are too low based on world economics right now.”
“Demand is truly picking up steam. We are very busy with all business segments of our company.”
“I think true demand is growing as many customers are telling me they were busier in July than June. The EAF mills are also telling me they are getting busier these days.”
“They are already [raising prices] one customer at a time.”
“I am not convinced they can get a big increase, but demand seems good enough they should be able to get some. Particularly if the increase isn’t too aggressive.”
“The Galvalume market is strong; however, other steel markets are not seeing the same amount of activity.”
“Lead-times are still fairly normal and it does not seem like service centers are that busy.”
“Maybe [an increase] would stop the bleeding.”
In other news, we published the final agenda today for the SMU Virtual Steel Summit. If you count the number of individual speakers, it totals 48! We have speakers from China, Australia, Germany, England, Chile, Mexico and Dubai, not to mention the U.S. When we said there was going to be a lot of content, we were not kidding.
Registrations for next week’s summit continue to mount, as the number of executives planning to “attend” is approaching the mid-700’s. Here are some of the companies that registered within the past couple of days: Caterpillar*, Midrex Technologies, Steel Manufacturing and Warehouse Co., Crown Equipment*, MetalMiner*, Kloeckner Metals, Vesuvius USA*, Hanwa (HAMCO), NLMK USA*, Willbanks Metals, Teck Metals Limited, Canam, BTD, Imperial Pools, Inc., Jemison Metals and Plateplus. You can join them by clicking here or going to www.SMUsteelsummit.com
On Wednesday, our virtual platform will open for all attendees, sponsors and exhibitors. There are a number of “demo” videos on the SMU Steel Summit website (www.SMUsteelsummit.com) Just click on “Demo Videos” in the toolbar at the top. The demo videos will assist you in navigating around, how to make an appointment with someone, help with networking, etc.
Tomorrow (Wednesday, Aug. 19) at 11 a.m. ET we will have an SMU Community Chat Webinar that will feature our “live” platform. You will be able to see what an attendee sees when he or she first enters the platform. We will answer as many questions as we can about the platform. You do not need to be a registered attendee to participate. Our hope is after you see what we have created, you will break down and spend less than $10 per speaker ($7.29 per speaker if you use the SMU and multi-person discounts) to join us. You can register by clicking here or going to www.SMUsteelsummit.com
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
Tim Triplett, Executive Editor
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
It’s once again A Tale of Two Cities in the steel market. Some are almost euphoric about Trump’s victory. Others, some rather bearish, are more focused on the day-to-day market between now and Inauguration Day on Jan. 20.
Final Thoughts
One of the perhaps unintentional perks of being a trade journalist is the opportunity to travel and cover an array of industry conferences and events. Some I've attended have been at fun locations, like Palm Springs and Tampa, Fla. Others have been in more practical locations, like SMU’s Steel Summit in Atlanta and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) meetings in Washington, D.C.
Final Thoughts
t this point in the game I think what we can say about Nippon Steel’s proposed buy of Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel is that it will go through, it won’t go through, or the outcome will be something new and completely unexpected. Then again, I’m probably still missing a few options.
Final Thoughts
President-elect Donald Trump continues to send shockwaves through the political establishment (again). And steel markets and ferrous scrap markets continue to be, well, anything but shocking. As the French writer Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr wrote in 1849, "The more things change, the more they stay the same." (I thought the quote might have been Yankees catcher Yogi Berra in 1949. Google taught me something new today.)
Final Thoughts
President-elect Donald Trump will officially retake the White House on Jan. 20. I’ve been getting questions about how his administration’s policies might reshape the steel industry and domestic manufacturing. I covered the tumult and norm busting of Trump's first term: Section 232, Section 301, USMCA - and that's just on the trade policy side of things. It's safe to say that we'll have no shortage of news in 2025 when it comes to trade and tariffs.