International Steel Prices
CRU: Expect a 22 Percent Drop in Steel Sheet Demand
Written by Tim Triplett
April 5, 2020
CRU is forecasting that North American steel sheet prices will find a bottom sometime this summer, but will remain volatile while supply and demand gradually rebalance as the coronavirus crisis subsides.
CRU projects steel consumption will decline by 22 percent this year as a result of virus-related shutdowns in automotive and other key manufacturing industries. Adding to the weak steel demand is the low price of oil, which has put the brakes on drilling activity in North America’s energy sector and on orders of oil country tubular goods. In response, various mills have idled furnaces and curtailed operations in an attempt to quickly cut steel output.
“We have tallied 8 million metric tons of production cuts so far this year, but we are seeing demand come down by 16 million tons. So, it is going to be a pretty volatile situation going forward,” said CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores during a CRU webinar earlier today.
Because steel demand has fallen so quickly, service centers have been left with a glut of inventory. In January-February, service centers were holding around a 2.4-month supply of sheet products with another 1.7 months of supply on order. “If demand at service centers falls by only 40 percent, this would make the current inventory look as high as six months of supply,” said Spoores.
CRU’s current view is for North American steel sheet demand to rebound by 12 million metric tons in 2021.
Request more information about this topic.
Learn more about CRU’s services at www.crugroup.com
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in International Steel Prices
Domestic HR, offshore prices decline
US hot-rolled (HR) coil prices slipped this week, while tags in offshore markets were also largely down. Thus, the price premium between stateside hot band and imports on a landed basis was relatively unchanged.
US CR, import prices edge back down
The price spread between US-produced cold-rolled (CR) coil and offshore products slipped in the week ended Nov. 15, on a landed basis.
CRU: Sheet prices hit bottom in Europe, pressure in other markets
This CRU analysis from discusses steel sheet prices, demand, and inventory levels around the globe this past week.
Domestic HR tags tick up, import prices fall
US hot-rolled (HR) coil prices edged up this week, while tags in offshore markets moved lower. As a result, domestic tags pulled ahead of imports on a landed basis. Since becoming level with import prices in late August, stateside tags had been mostly stable, though they slowly drifted closer to parity over the past month. […]
US CR, import prices trend higher
The price spread between US-produced cold-rolled (CR) coil and offshore products remained largely flat in the week ended Nov. 8, on a landed basis.