Economy
CRU Webcast: Global Pandemic Triggers Global Recession
Written by Tim Triplett
April 4, 2020
The global impact of Covid-19 has been profound. Lockdowns of countries and regions are now the norm. Uncertainty about the ultimate economic cost of this health crisis has fuelled financial market volatility and prompted unprecedented government support. CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen joins Doug Hilderhoff, principal analyst for aluminium, and Josh Spoores, principal analyst for steel, for CRU’s latest global outlook, and implications for key commodity markets.
Following are the topics discussed:
CRU’s Global Macro Forecast
Global recession and contraction in world industrial production
China sees a hard landing in 2020, despite a quick return to normality
EU and the USA enter recession
Implication for Steel
Steel sheet demand in the USA to fall 25 percent
Mills quickly cut production and idle mills
Sheet prices may fall back towards lows last seen in 2015
Implications for Aluminum
Massive primary aluminium surplus unavoidable in 2020
LME to average $1,425 in Q2
Ex. China primary aluminium demand to fall >10 percent in 2020
Click here to watch the webinar. Slides for this presentation can be downloaded here.
This webinar was originally recorded on April 2 for CRU subscribers.
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in Economy
Supply chains, end-users brace for impact from tariffs
Supply chains are working through what the tariffs mean for them
ISM: Manufacturing expansion loses steam after two months of growth
US manufacturing activity slowed in March after two straight months of expansion, according to supply executives contributing to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)’s latest report.
Chicago Business Barometer rose to 16-month high in March
The Chicago Business Barometer increased for the third-consecutive month in March. Despite this, it still reflects contracting business conditions, as it has since December 2023.
Durable goods orders rise again in February
Transportation equipment led the increase, rising 1.5% to $98.3 billion.
Consumer confidence falls for fourth consecutive month
People remain concerned about inflation, trade policies, and tariffs.