SMU Data and Models
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/media/k2/items/src/8d89a23768d558eb1a3ebc8b60c74f3a.jpg)
Service Center Inventories and Shipments Report for December
Written by Estelle Tran
January 17, 2020
Steel Market Update’s analysis of flat rolled and plate inventories and shipments for the month of December:
Flat Rolled = 62.9 Shipping Days of Supply
Plate Steels = 60.4 Shipping Days of Supply
Flat Rolled
Service center flat rolled steel inventories increased 5.7 percent month on month while shipments fell 10.1 percent, according to adjusted December data compared to final November figures. The result was a spike in shipping days of supply. We used 20 shipping days for our calculations, which showed 62.9 shipping days of supply. If you calculate 19 shipping days, the shipping days of supply in December falls to 59.7, which is still a significant increase from 50.8 in November.
In terms of months of supply, service centers carried 3.15 months of sheet inventory at the end of December, up from 2.67.
On-order volumes remained elevated, with about a 1 percent month-on-month decrease in on-order volumes.
The percentage of inventory committed to contracts was 50.7 percent in December, flat compared to 50.8 in November.
Going forward, we expect shipments to pick up in January and service centers to work through some of their heightened inventories. January inventories may remain elevated, though, as we continue to see cautious optimism regarding sheet pricing and steady buying on mill contracts priced below spot levels.
Plate
Plate volumes remained flat month over month, though shipments declined 2 percent. As a result, service center plate inventories increased to 60.4 shipping days of supply, up from 56 in November. This represented 3.02 months of supply, up from 2.95 in November.
On-order volumes rose in December, as service centers saw the bottom for pricing and placed substantial orders in late November and early December.
We expect restocking to remain steady as mill lead times have extended for certain products. While we see a seasonal pickup in the near term, there are few demand drivers for plate aside from pipeline projects. Plate prices do not have as much support as sheet; so, while we see steady orders for now, service centers may soon switch back to booking as needed.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/04/CRU_ET_headshot-150x150.jpg)
Estelle Tran
Read more from Estelle TranLatest in SMU Data and Models
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/01/cropped-SMU_Mobile_final.png)
SMU’s August at a glance
SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of important steel market metrics for the previous month. Our August report includes data updated through August 30th.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/images/Featured_News_Icons/Premium1.png)
SMU market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.”
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/01/cropped-SMU_Mobile_final.png)
SMU survey: Lead times edge higher for sheet
Current steel mill lead time averages are a few days longer than levels seen one month prior, but remain near historical lows for both sheet and plate products.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/01/cropped-SMU_Mobile_final.png)
SMU survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices surge
Both our Current and Future Indices are now up to multi-month highs, indicating continued optimism among steel buyers.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/01/cropped-SMU_Mobile_final.png)
SMU survey: Mills’ flexibility on prices up slightly
Steel buyers found mills slightly more willing to negotiate spot prices this week, according to our most recent survey data. Though this negotiation rate has ticked up vs. our previous market check, overall rates have been trending downward since July’s highs.