Steel Mill Lead Times: Mixed Readings

Reporting the change in average lead times since mid-November, hot rolled is now at 4.63 weeks, down from 4.70 weeks. The average lead time for Galvalume is down to 6.89 weeks from 7.13 weeks. Lead times for spot orders of plate steel are down to 4.50 weeks from 4.56 weeks. Moving the opposite direction was cold rolled, now up to 6.33 weeks from 6.04 weeks, and galvanized, up to 7.18 weeks from 6.94 weeks. Except for plate, lead times for all steel products are still longer than they were at this time last year.

The series of price hikes announced by the mills in late October and early November pulled some buyers into the market ahead of the rising prices, pushing out lead times. Steel Market Update estimates the current hot rolled price at $555 per ton, up approximately $75 since October. Do the slight downturns in the average lead times of hot rolled and some other products suggest the price increases may be losing momentum? It’s certainly too soon to tell, but worth watching.

Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.