Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
September 11, 2019
John Packard is on vacation…
Have the mills lost their pricing momentum on flat rolled? It sure looks that way, based on the latest Steel Market Update data.
About 38 percent of the OEM and service center executives responding to SMU’s market trends questionnaire this week report that the mills have lost their momentum and flat rolled prices are already moving lower. Nearly all the rest say the mills are struggling to maintain the price gains they saw when they raised prices back in July. Only 3 percent say the mills are in control and prices will continue to rise over the next 30 days.
Other SMU data corroborates that view. The vast majority of steel buyers say the mills are open to negotiating spot prices to secure orders, and lead times show signs of shortening, which suggests the mills are not as busy as they would wish. Adding to the downward pressure on steel prices is a $30-40 per ton decrease in the price of ferrous scrap this month as the mills anticipate weaker demand and shutdowns for fall maintenance.
“Lead times grew after the first two price announcements, but they’re now short again,” commented one respondent. “The lower cost scrap will not help steel pricing,” said another. “Hopefully the mills won’t break ranks,” added a third, though in terms of the last round of price increases, it appears the ranks are already broken.
SMU regretfully had to turn away some folks when the last Steel 101 workshop sold out. It’s not too early to sign up for the next one. Registrations are now being accepted for the upcoming Steel 101 in Ontario, Calif., Jan. 7-8. The program will include classroom instruction, networking opportunities and a tour of the California Steel Industries mill. Click here for more information.
Reach out to Paige Mayhair if you have any questions in John’s absence. Paige can set up new accounts, handle renewals and respond to most inquiries. She can be reached at 724-720-1012 or by email at: Paige@SteelMarketUpdate.com
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
Tim Triplett, Executive Editor
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
It’s once again A Tale of Two Cities in the steel market. Some are almost euphoric about Trump’s victory. Others, some rather bearish, are more focused on the day-to-day market between now and Inauguration Day on Jan. 20.
Final Thoughts
One of the perhaps unintentional perks of being a trade journalist is the opportunity to travel and cover an array of industry conferences and events. Some I've attended have been at fun locations, like Palm Springs and Tampa, Fla. Others have been in more practical locations, like SMU’s Steel Summit in Atlanta and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) meetings in Washington, D.C.
Final Thoughts
t this point in the game I think what we can say about Nippon Steel’s proposed buy of Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel is that it will go through, it won’t go through, or the outcome will be something new and completely unexpected. Then again, I’m probably still missing a few options.
Final Thoughts
President-elect Donald Trump continues to send shockwaves through the political establishment (again). And steel markets and ferrous scrap markets continue to be, well, anything but shocking. As the French writer Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr wrote in 1849, "The more things change, the more they stay the same." (I thought the quote might have been Yankees catcher Yogi Berra in 1949. Google taught me something new today.)
Final Thoughts
President-elect Donald Trump will officially retake the White House on Jan. 20. I’ve been getting questions about how his administration’s policies might reshape the steel industry and domestic manufacturing. I covered the tumult and norm busting of Trump's first term: Section 232, Section 301, USMCA - and that's just on the trade policy side of things. It's safe to say that we'll have no shortage of news in 2025 when it comes to trade and tariffs.