SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Negotiations: Little Change in Tone of Talks
Written by Tim Triplett
August 22, 2019
There has been little change in the tone of price talks over the past two weeks. The majority of buyers continue to report that mills generally are willing to negotiate to secure spot orders, even as they work to collect recent price increases on flat rolled and plate products.
Since late June, the mills have increased flat rolled prices three times for a total of $120 per ton, and plate prices twice for a total of $80 per ton. SMU’s average benchmark price for hot rolled has risen to $585 per ton this week from a low of $520 on June 25, so the mills have managed to collect a portion of the increase. SMU’s Price Momentum Indicator is still pointing Higher, but prices appear to be very open for discussion.
In the hot rolled segment, 71 percent of respondents to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire said the mills were still open to price talks on HR this week, unchanged from earlier in the month. Just 29 percent said their mill suppliers were holding the line.
In the cold rolled segment, a slightly smaller percentage said the mills were negotiating. But at 72 percent (down 5 points in the past two weeks), it’s clearly still common for the mills to talk price. Only 28 percent report the mills holding firm on cold rolled prices, a percentage that has seen little change since the price increases were announced.
Suppliers of galvanized steel appear to be the least likely to discount. Forty-six percent of respondents said the galvanized mills just say no when asked to compromise on price. Yet the majority, 54 percent, said even galv producers were negotiating. Seventy percent of respondents reported that the mills are standing pat on Galvalume prices.
Plate prices are clearly in play as two out of three buyers report the plate mills willing to negotiate. Yet the mills are hoping to reverse a decline that has seen plate prices slide from more than $1,000 per ton at the beginning of the year. Following a small bump in early August, plates prices have settled around $790 per ton, according to SMU data.
Note: SMU surveys active steel buyers twice each month to gauge the willingness of their steel suppliers to negotiate pricing. The results reflect current steel demand and changing spot pricing trends. SMU provides our members with a number of ways to interact with current and historical data. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Negotiations data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices stable to start 2025
Both SMU Steel Buyers' Sentiment Indices remain in positive territory, indicating that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times short and steady to start 2025
Buyers participating in our first market survey of 2025 reported a slight decline in mill lead times compared to our last survey in mid-December. After rising moderately in early December, lead times edged lower through this week and are now only slightly above the lows seen back in July and November. Overall, production times have remained historically short since last summer, with minimal movement since then.
SMU’s December at a glance
SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of important steel market metrics for the previous month. Our latest report includes data updated through December 31st.
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices contrast at year end
Both of our Sentiment Indices remain in positive territory and indicate that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times contract slightly, remain short
Steel mill production times have seen very little change since September, according to buyers participating in our latest market survey.