Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
June 19, 2019
There were many questions raised earlier this week about the announced new steelmaking and rolling capacities and whether those projects would indeed continue through completion. The questions came during various steel meetings held by analysts, steel mills, CRU and others in New York City. I participated in three events and found the question brought up either during presentations or in private discussions at each one of them.
The answers that we are getting either directly from the steel mills in question or from the financial community, which has been meeting with the mill CEOs this week in NYC, is the work continues unabated. JSW told me directly that their project in Baytown is moving “at full speed” and advised the market to not pay any attention to rumors. Nucor advised in their investor day held today that they are enthusiastic about the projects on their drawing board. Earlier this month, I participated in a press briefing where Steel Dynamics CEO Mark Millett justified their proposed new mill in the Texas/Louisiana region so they could better serve the energy and automotive markets in the U.S. and Mexico. Earlier this year, I visited the Ternium construction site in Mexico as they prepare for 4.5 million tons of new rolling capacity.
The capacity is coming and we will have a couple of panels at this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference that will deal with the question – Why is the capacity being built? – and another equally important – Is it really needed, and how will it impact the steel markets (and pricing)? Our mill panel will be an open discussion with SDI CEO Mark Millett, JSW USA CEO John Hritz, Ternium Mexico CEO Cesar Jimenez and Nucor Executive Vice President Ladd Hall, which I will moderate.
A second panel will deal specifically with whether the new capacity is needed and what the impact may be on the steel industry and steel prices. This panel will consist of Bank of America Merrill Lynch metals and mining analyst Timna Tanners (who has trademarked the word “Steelmageddon,” so I think you can presume her position), Steel Research Associates Managing Director Paul Lowrey and CRU Head of Consulting Lynn Lupori.
If you would like to learn more about this year’s conference, including how to register, go to: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel-Summit
We are continuing to work with hotels in the region as we prepare to begin taking registrations for the SMU Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshop. The hotel will be in the area around Ghent, Ky. (probably close to the Cincinnati airport), which is where the Nucor Gallatin steel mill is located. We will be touring the Nucor mill on Tuesday, Oct. 8 (workshop dates will be Oct. 8-9, 2019). More details to follow soon.
A note to any companies or associations that would be interested in having me speak at one of your meetings, either later this year or next. I am interested in participating as my schedule permits. Please send me a note with the dates you are looking at and I will come back to you ASAP. I can be reached at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
It’s once again A Tale of Two Cities in the steel market. Some are almost euphoric about Trump’s victory. Others, some rather bearish, are more focused on the day-to-day market between now and Inauguration Day on Jan. 20.
Final Thoughts
One of the perhaps unintentional perks of being a trade journalist is the opportunity to travel and cover an array of industry conferences and events. Some I've attended have been at fun locations, like Palm Springs and Tampa, Fla. Others have been in more practical locations, like SMU’s Steel Summit in Atlanta and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) meetings in Washington, D.C.
Final Thoughts
t this point in the game I think what we can say about Nippon Steel’s proposed buy of Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel is that it will go through, it won’t go through, or the outcome will be something new and completely unexpected. Then again, I’m probably still missing a few options.
Final Thoughts
President-elect Donald Trump continues to send shockwaves through the political establishment (again). And steel markets and ferrous scrap markets continue to be, well, anything but shocking. As the French writer Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr wrote in 1849, "The more things change, the more they stay the same." (I thought the quote might have been Yankees catcher Yogi Berra in 1949. Google taught me something new today.)
Final Thoughts
President-elect Donald Trump will officially retake the White House on Jan. 20. I’ve been getting questions about how his administration’s policies might reshape the steel industry and domestic manufacturing. I covered the tumult and norm busting of Trump's first term: Section 232, Section 301, USMCA - and that's just on the trade policy side of things. It's safe to say that we'll have no shortage of news in 2025 when it comes to trade and tariffs.