Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
June 19, 2019
There were many questions raised earlier this week about the announced new steelmaking and rolling capacities and whether those projects would indeed continue through completion. The questions came during various steel meetings held by analysts, steel mills, CRU and others in New York City. I participated in three events and found the question brought up either during presentations or in private discussions at each one of them.
The answers that we are getting either directly from the steel mills in question or from the financial community, which has been meeting with the mill CEOs this week in NYC, is the work continues unabated. JSW told me directly that their project in Baytown is moving “at full speed” and advised the market to not pay any attention to rumors. Nucor advised in their investor day held today that they are enthusiastic about the projects on their drawing board. Earlier this month, I participated in a press briefing where Steel Dynamics CEO Mark Millett justified their proposed new mill in the Texas/Louisiana region so they could better serve the energy and automotive markets in the U.S. and Mexico. Earlier this year, I visited the Ternium construction site in Mexico as they prepare for 4.5 million tons of new rolling capacity.
The capacity is coming and we will have a couple of panels at this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference that will deal with the question – Why is the capacity being built? – and another equally important – Is it really needed, and how will it impact the steel markets (and pricing)? Our mill panel will be an open discussion with SDI CEO Mark Millett, JSW USA CEO John Hritz, Ternium Mexico CEO Cesar Jimenez and Nucor Executive Vice President Ladd Hall, which I will moderate.
A second panel will deal specifically with whether the new capacity is needed and what the impact may be on the steel industry and steel prices. This panel will consist of Bank of America Merrill Lynch metals and mining analyst Timna Tanners (who has trademarked the word “Steelmageddon,” so I think you can presume her position), Steel Research Associates Managing Director Paul Lowrey and CRU Head of Consulting Lynn Lupori.
If you would like to learn more about this year’s conference, including how to register, go to: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel-Summit
We are continuing to work with hotels in the region as we prepare to begin taking registrations for the SMU Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshop. The hotel will be in the area around Ghent, Ky. (probably close to the Cincinnati airport), which is where the Nucor Gallatin steel mill is located. We will be touring the Nucor mill on Tuesday, Oct. 8 (workshop dates will be Oct. 8-9, 2019). More details to follow soon.
A note to any companies or associations that would be interested in having me speak at one of your meetings, either later this year or next. I am interested in participating as my schedule permits. Please send me a note with the dates you are looking at and I will come back to you ASAP. I can be reached at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.
Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.
Final Thoughts
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.
Final Thoughts
A modest week-to-week change in HR price understates a huge swing in expectations.
Final Thoughts
What happens when ChatGPT meets SMU's Market Chatter? No, this is not an idea for the latest Hollywood blockbuster. Then again, with what Hollywood is putting out these days, Chatter Meets Chat might just turn out to be a hit. Rather, it’s that old idea of putting theory into practice. Recently, I conducted an interview with Doug Schrock, managing principal of AI at public accounting and consulting firm Crowe. He gave some tips on how to implement AI into your business.