Economy

Empire State Manufacturing Index: Rebound or Outlier?

Written by Sandy Williams


Business activity in New York State rose sharply in May, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The general business conditions index gained eight points for a reading of 17.8, its highest level in six months.

Manufacturers reported a jump in new orders and shipments and an increase in backlogs. Inventories were slightly below April levels. Delivery times were consistent with the previous month.

The employment index dropped seven points to 4.7 indicating only a small increase in employment. Average workweek hours were steady at an index reading of 4.4.

Prices declined slightly from April with the prices paid index at 26.2 and the prices received index at 12.4.

Firms were more optimistic about business conditions for the next six months. The future business index soared 18 points to register 30.6.

The May survey was conducted before the latest escalation of the U.S./China trade war. At the time, a trade agreement with China looked promising, but now with the administration’s tariff expansion and China’s retaliation the June index may show a different outlook.

Commented MarketWatch, “Manufacturing has been one of the weak points of the economy this year, so this report stands out as a possible sign of better things to come—or, perhaps, an outlier.”

Latest in Economy

CRU: Dollar and bond yields rise, metal prices fall as Trump wins election

Donald Trump has won the US presidential election. The Republican party has re-taken control of the Senate. Votes are still being counted in many tight congressional races. But based on results so far, the Republicans seem likely to maintain control of the House of Representatives. If confirmed, this will give Trump considerable scope to pass legislation pursuing his agenda. What this means for US policy is not immediately obvious. Trump will not be inaugurated until Jan. 20. In the coming weeks and months, he will begin to assemble his cabinet, which may give a clearer signal on his policy priorities and approaches. Based on statements he made during the presidential campaign, we have set out the likely direction of his economic policy here and green policy here.