SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Slightly Shorter
Written by Tim Triplett
April 18, 2019
Average lead times for spot orders of steel, including all types of products, have shortened slightly in the past two weeks. Hot rolled lead times now average around four weeks, cold rolled and Galvalume around six weeks, and galvanized down to nearly six and a half weeks. Lead times for plate are now less than six weeks, according to Steel Market Update data.
Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The shorter the lead time, the less busy the mill and the more likely they are to negotiate on price. (The latest SMU data shows that most mills are open to price negotiations in the current environment; see related story in this issue.)
Hot rolled lead times now average 4.13 weeks, down from 4.28 weeks reported in early April. Current lead times for hot rolled are well below the 5.68 weeks at this time last year when steel was in strong demand.
Cold rolled orders currently have a lead time of 6.10 weeks, down from 6.57 weeks just two weeks ago. Cold rolled lead times at this time last year stretched to 7.75 weeks.
Average lead times for galvanized dipped to 6.65 weeks from 6.96 weeks in SMU’s last market canvass. Galvanized lead times were considerably longer at around 8.13 weeks in early April 2018. The current average lead time for spot orders of Galvalume is around 6.00 weeks, down from 6.30 weeks in the last poll.
Lead times for spot orders of plate steel now average 5.80 weeks, down from 6.25 weeks as measured by SMU two weeks ago.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index jumps, Future Sentiment slips
SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index rocketed up this week, while the Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index edged down. The two indices are almost at parity.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times stretch to 10-month highs
Buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that steel mill lead times were stretching out this week for sheet and plate products tracked by SMU. The results weren’t much of a surprise. Production times have begun moving out following a wave of frenzied buying in response to stricter Section 232 announced by the Trump […]
SMU Survey: Mills slam door on buyers looking to talk price
Mills’ flexibility on price for spot orders has taken a nosedive to levels not seen since the end of March 2023.
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment indicates increased optimism
After reaching multi-month lows in mid-January, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebounded this week to some of the highest readings recorded in months.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times fluctuate, extensions expected
While we have seen some movements in recent weeks, steel mill production times remain within a few days of the historical lows observed over the last two years, a trend observed since mid-2024.