Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
April 17, 2019
First, please be aware that Sunday is Easter and Steel Market Update will not publish an issue on Sunday evening. Our next issue will be on Tuesday, April 23.
We have been receiving calls and getting comments associated with our release of the SMU Service Center Inventories Analysis in Sunday evening’s issue where we showed flat rolled inventories as being 2.7 months of supply, up slightly from the 2.5 months of supply we reported to our data providers from the prior month. We are comfortable in the data providers who are reporting their information on a confidential basis to us. We believe our number is accurate and reflective of what is going on in the market. We are continuing to add new service centers and to build our database. There is no cost to become a data provider, and we are willing to sign a non-disclosure agreement with any service center interested in providing data to us. If you would like more information or would like to be added as a data provider, please contact me at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com or Estelle.Tran@crugroup.com
I started collecting inventory data from service centers a couple of years ago. Back in October 2018, with the help of the CRU Group, we expanded the amount of data being collected in order to provide a quality product back to the industry. Right now, the data is not available on a regular basis to anyone other than data providers. Over time this may change, but for now we are concentrating on flat rolled and plate steel service centers only. Again, if you have any questions or would like to make comments, you are welcome to contact me.
There is much confusion in the market regarding steel pricing. I am hearing it from multiple avenues – service centers, trading companies and even from the steel mills themselves. On one hand we have capacity utilization rates well above 80 percent, and probably higher on flat rolled. While at the same time we are seeing some unusual pricing out there on virtually all products. I have been taking some of the low base prices that I have received on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume as being outliers. Yet, there does seem to be a trend developing that needs to be investigated in more detail next week when we are back from the Easter Holiday.
Until then, the SMU Price Momentum Indicator on hot rolled is for Lower prices over the next 30 days. Momentum on cold rolled and coated steels (GI and AZ) are referenced as being Neutral right now and plate steels are referenced as Lower. I need more data regarding what is being offered into the market on these products, and I would appreciate any information you might have. You can email me at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com or contact me by phone at 800-432-3475. I will be in my office on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
I am gearing up to be actively traveling again beginning late next week (25th & 26th) when I will be in Atlanta for a speaking engagement with the Association of Cold Rolled Specialty Steel Producers.
On the 8th of May I will be in Chicago speaking to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch and then the following day (9th) I will be attending the Boy Scout Dinner in Chicago. I highly recommend attending the Boy Scout Dinner, and here is their link if you would like to learn more about it.
On the 14th and 15th of May we will host our next Steel 101 workshop in Davenport, Iowa. We still have seats available and you can find more details on our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel101
On the 17th and 18th of May I will be in Minnesota for a Hamline University Board of Trustees meeting and commencement. This will be the first time I will march in commencement since I graduated eons ago… Receiving an honorary degree and giving the commencement address will be former Minnesota Supreme Court Justice and NFL football player Alan Page. Page was one of the fearsome foursome defensive linemen of the Minnesota Vikings and was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 1988. I wonder how many of you realized that he went on to become a legal scholar and justice?
The following week, May 21-23, I will be in Atlanta along with the Chief Economist for CRU speaking to a manufacturing company’s event they are putting on for all of their suppliers.
I will have a week back in the office at the end of May before heading to Washington, D.C., to speak with the Steel Manufacturers Association (June 3-5).
I continue to recommend that you and others from your company register for the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference in Atlanta. The dates this year are Aug. 26-28. This should be one of the best conferences we have ever hosted. We have an exceptional group of speakers covering a wide range of topics of interest to the flat rolled and plate steel segments of the industry. The networking will be excellent as always and we already have a large group registered covering everything from automotive, construction, energy, appliance, large equipment, steel distribution and processing, steel mills, trading companies and companies who support those industries. You can learn more on our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel-Summit or you can contact us at 770-299-9897 or you can contact me at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com
For those interested in becoming a new subscriber to SMU or would like information about expanding or upgrading your newsletter services, please contact Paige Mayhair at 724-720-1012 or by email at Paige@SteelMarketUpdate.com
We are here to answer any questions you might have.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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