SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Not Much Change
Written by Tim Triplett
March 21, 2019
Lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel saw little additional change in the past two weeks after moving out by a few days following the mill price increase announcements in January and February. Hot rolled lead times now average a bit more than four weeks, cold rolled more than six weeks, plate six and a half weeks and galvanized nearing seven weeks.
Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The longer the lead time, the busier the mills. The busier the mills, the less likely they are to negotiate on price.
Hot rolled lead times now average 4.21 weeks, about the same as the 4.19 weeks reported in early March. Current lead times for hot rolled are still well below the 5.70 weeks at this time last year.
Cold rolled orders currently have a lead time of 6.19 weeks, little changed from the 6.24 reported around March 1. Cold rolled lead times at this time last year stretched to 7.72 weeks.
Similarly, average lead times for galvanized steel have stuck around 6.82 weeks, similar to the 6.77 weeks earlier in the month. Galvanized lead times were considerably longer at around eight weeks in mid-March 2018. The current average lead time for spot orders of Galvalume is around 6.5 weeks.
Lead times for spot orders of plate steel now average 6.45 weeks, up a tick from 6.38 in SMU’s last market canvas.
Two out of three service center respondents consider current lead times to be typical for this time of year, while the other third are evenly split on lead times being slightly longer or slightly shorter than normal. As one executive commented: “The mills’ ineffectiveness at providing consistent delivery is one of the reasons service centers exist.”
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebound
Following months of fluctuations, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebounded this week, now at multi-month highs. Both of our Indices remain in positive territory and indicate that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times remain stable and short
Steel buyers participating in our market survey this week reported stable mill lead times for both sheet and plate steel products.
SMU Survey: Most buyers report mills still willing to talk price
Most steel buyers SMU polled this week reported that mills remain willing to negotiate new order pricing.
October service center shipments and inventories report
Flat rolled = 63.4 shipping days of supply Plate = 52.4 shipping days of supply Flat rolled shipments and inventories Flat-rolled steel supply at US service centers remains seasonally high. October inventories increased after edging lower in September – a dynamic driven largely by disappointing demand. October’s report reflects lower demand and stable lead times […]