Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
March 15, 2019
I will be traveling all week as I head to Monterrey, Mexico, to tour the Ternium training facilities and steel mill. I will also be meeting with Cesar Jimenez, the CEO for Ternium Mexico, to discuss the new capacity they have coming onstream over the next 12-24 months.
We are also working with Ternium to conduct one of our Steel 101 workshops in Monterrey either late this year or early next year. One of the purposes of my trip is to get a better understanding of the mill, hotels we could work with and to make sure that all attendees for this potential workshop will feel secure. I will have more to report later this week or early next week.
Our next Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshop will be held in Davenport, Iowa, on May 14-15 (perfect time of the year to be in Iowa). We will be touring the SSAB steel mill. You can get to Davenport by flying into either Moline, Ill. (Quad Cities) or through one of the Chicago airports. From Chicago, Davenport is about a 2.5 hour drive. You can find more details about the workshop, costs to attend and how to register on our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel101.
I will be taking a few vacation days later this week as I go from Monterrey to Los Angeles to visit my daughter.
I will respond to emails and texts as soon as possible while I am away. Covering my office phone will be Paige Mayhair. She can be reached directly at 724-720-1012 or by email: Paige@SteelMarketUpdate.com
We have completed our SMU Service Center Inventories Analysis and the full report has been sent to the data providers. We continue to add new data providers on a monthly basis and the total tonnage we are now covering has become quite significant. The number of months of supply for flat rolled at the end of February was reported as 2.5 months, up from 2.3 months at the end of January. Plate inventories were reported to our data providers as 3.3 months of supply, up from 2.8 months from the prior month. If you would like to learn more about what we are covering in our analysis, and if you would like to become a data provider, please contact Estelle.Tran@crugroup.com or by phone at 724-759-7876.
We are closing in on 200 registrations for the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference, which is ahead of our booking rate at this time last year when we had 912 attendees. CRU has put together an incredible brochure about our conference on their website. You can view it by clicking here. I highly recommend making plans early to attend. Remember, this year the conference will have a Price Risk Management Workshop hosted by the CME Group beginning at 10:30 a.m. on Monday, Aug. 26. That workshop will be at the Marriott next to the convention center. The conference will begin at 1 p.m. in the Georgia International Convention Center and will kick off with Chris Houlden and Josh Spoores from CRU, along with me, discussing a number of CRU/SMU proprietary indices. CRU will give a first look at the price forecast for the balance 2019 and all of 2020. To register and learn more go to: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel-Summit
Happy Saint Patrick’s Day to our Irish friends.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
When a mapmaker constructs a map, it’s always to the contours of the land. Or sea. That is, the mapmaker doesn’t say, “Look, these rocks really don’t belong here, so I’m not going to include them in the harbor map.” Uncharted rocks, sink ships (along with loose lips).
Final Thoughts
We had an October surprise here at SMU on Wednesday. I was working from the CRU office in Pittsburgh, and the internet connection briefly went out. As luck would have it, that happened smack in the middle of a live Community Chat webinar. Fortunately, my colleague David Schollaert stepped in, Zekelman Industries CEO Barry Zekelman rolled with the punches – and the show went on. Could there be any more October surprises in store for us and for the steel market?
Final Thoughts
We just wrapped up another Steel 101 workshop, easily the most hands-on industry workshop on steelmaking and market fundamentals, in this humble opinion. Last week on Tuesday and Wednesday, SMU’s Steel 101 was held in Starkville, Miss.
Final Thoughts
Everybody has an opinion about politics these days. More importantly for our readers, though, every business has a bottom line. A popular question in our most recent steel buyers survey asked how uncertainty around the upcoming US presidential election could affect that line.
Final Thoughts
I’m trying to make sure this is not a TL;DR Final Thoughts. As a journalism school professor once told me, ‘No one but your mom reads more than 1,000 words.’ Also, as the old adage goes, a picture is worth a thousand as well. With that in mind, below are a couple of charts that I think go a long way toward explaining how prices and lead times have been relatively stable despite concerns about demand.