Steel Products

Benchmark Hot Rolled Prices Break Below $800/Ton

October 30, 2018

Flat rolled steel prices have stalled, despite the increase announcements out of many of the domestic steel mills. Plate steel spot prices, on the other hand, continue to remain firm in December with an expectation of a $40 price increase being collected in January.

Steel Market Update canvassed the flat rolled and plate steel buyers and a few steel mills over the course of the past two days to see what has been happening to spot prices and lead times. We found a “stable to weakening” price environment as mills work to fill end- of-the-year order books, and to respond to a door the flat rolled mills opened for foreign steel when they made their pricing announcement a few weeks back.

One of the steel mills told SMU earlier today, “Yesterday [Monday, Oct. 29], some mills woke up 1) with a bit of hunger to either sell leftover November and December tons or 2) realizing that global pricing had moved south and people were buying import. In any event, I feel that pricing gave back $.50/cwt in coated and cold rolled….”

It is important for our readers to understand how Steel Market Update goes about collecting pricing data and how we may differ from other indexes. We work one-on-one with steel buyers in the manufacturing, service center and wholesaler segments of the industry. We gather information from steel mills only as a way of confirming what we are collecting from steel buyers. We do not rely upon actual transactions from the steel mills and tend to be more interested in the negotiation process (offers and counter offers) as we consider the trend. We develop a range of prices from low to high. We do not always publish the absolute lowest prices that we collect, nor the highest prices if there are a limited number of data points at those levels. Our index average is nothing more than the high and low added together and divided by two. If you have questions about our index pricing, you are welcome to contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com and we will do our best to respond to your inquiry.

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Here’s how we see spot prices in flat rolled and plate steel this week:

Hot Rolled Coil: SMU price range is $750-$840 per ton ($37.50/cwt-$42.00/cwt) with an average of $795 per ton ($39.75/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range dropped $50 per ton compared to one week ago (when it rose by $40 per ton, so we look at last week as having missed some of the data we were able to collect today), while the upper end remained the same. Our overall average is down $25 per ton compared to last week. We are reviewing our Price Momentum Indicator on hot rolled steel, which currently is at Neutral meaning we expect prices to remain steady over the next 30 to 60 days. We will make a determination over the next few days if we wish to adjust our Indicator to point to a specific direction.

Hot Rolled Lead Times: 3-5 weeks

Cold Rolled Coil: SMU price range is $920-$950 per ton ($46.00/cwt-$47.50/cwt) with an average of $935 per ton ($46.75/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range rose $20 per ton compared to last week, while the upper end declined by $20 per ton. Our overall average remained the same as compared to one week ago. Our price momentum on cold rolled steel is Neutral meaning we expect prices to remain steady over the next 30 to 60 days. We are reviewing the situation with cold rolled price momentum and will advise if we are going to change direction within the next couple of days.

Cold Rolled Lead Times: 5-8 weeks

Galvanized Coil: SMU base price range is $44.50/cwt-$48.00/cwt ($890-$960 per ton) with an average of $46.25/cwt ($925 per ton) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range dropped $30 per ton compared to one week ago, while the upper end remained the same. Our overall average is down $15 per ton compared to last week. Our price momentum on galvanized steel is Neutral meaning we expect prices to remain steady over the next 30 to 60 days. We are reviewing galvanized momentum to see if the indicator needs to be adjusted based on the latest information we have been gathering. We will answer that question within the next couple of days.

Galvanized Lead Times: 5-9 weeks

Galvalume Coil: SMU base price range is $46.00/cwt-$48.00/cwt ($920-$960 per ton) with an average of $47.00/cwt ($940 per ton) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range dropped $10 per ton while the upper end remained the same compared to last week. Our overall average is down $5 per ton compared to one week ago. Our price momentum on Galvalume steel is Neutral meaning we expect prices to remain steady over the next 30 to 60 days. As with other flat rolled products we are evaluating whether to adjust our Price Momentum Indicator for Galvalume and will advise over the next couple of days.

Galvalume Lead Times: 7-10 weeks

Plate: SMU price range is $960-$1,030 per ton ($48.00/cwt-$51.50/cwt) with an average of $995 per ton ($49.75/cwt) FOB delivered to the customer’s facility. Both the lower and upper ends of our range remained the same compared to one week ago. Our overall average is unchanged compared to last week. Our price momentum on plate steel is Neutral meaning we expect stable prices for December order books. We are anticipating the mills will be able to collect slightly higher prices in January. The domestic plate mills continue to be on controlled order entry as their order books are strong with limited spot plate tonnage available.

Plate Lead Times: 6-10 weeks, allocation/controlled order entry