Final Thoughts
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Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
July 6, 2018
I will be in my office on Monday and Tuesday of this week before traveling to Maine to speak to the Chain Link Fence Manufacturers Institute on Thursday. I have a very busy schedule over the next couple of months leading up to our 8th SMU Steel Summit Conference on Aug. 27-29. I hope I will see many of our readers at the conference this year. Should be a great networking and forecasting event.
I have noticed the word “disconnect” being used quite often regarding a wide variety of topics concerning the steel and scrap industries. Over the weekend it was used to describe the relationship between scrap and steel pricing. With prime grades of scrap going for the low $400’s and hot rolled coil around $900, there is an obvious disconnect. There is also a disconnect between what is happening with steel prices in the rest of the world and what is happening here.
I thought the letter we received (and published in this evening’s issue of SMU) in response to the letter to the editor we published on Thursday regarding the forecast for prices to drop by $200+ per ton by the end of the year was interesting. It was from someone within the trading portion of the industry.
With the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, farmers from across the United States and especially in the “Red” states and the auto industry coming out against tariffs, we could see them removed before the end of the year. My personal opinion is, after watching the Trump administration so far, their belief is the size of the U.S. market will ultimately make China and other countries come to the table and cut better deals. My guess is we will have to wait (and hold our collective breaths) to see if the administration has played their hand correctly.
I will be reviewing our Price Momentum Indicator this week as it appears there is a disconnect (there’s that word again) between products. Hot rolled and plate may be reacting to market forces that are not as strong for cold rolled and coated steels. If you have any opinions or commentary on the subject, please send it (confidentially) to me at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com or give me a call at 800-432-3475.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
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John Packard
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Final thoughts
Sheet prices didn’t roar back after Labor Day. But steel market news sure came out of the gate strong (or maybe chaotically is the better way to put it). First, the nearly $15-billion proposed sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel exploded into the news. And when I say exploded, I mean that all sides seem to be escalating things now.
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Final thoughts
Welcome back from Labor Day, from Steel Summit, and from whatever fun you might have had over the long weekend. Personally, I enjoyed camping with friends and family near Starved Rock. No one starved, there were no major injuries, and we enjoyed the many splendors of Mystical Fire. (Speaking of which, does that have industrial uses? But I digress.)
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Final thoughts
I want to say a huge ‘thank you’ from all of us at SMU to all of you (more than 1,500!) who attended Steel Summit this year. We appreciate you taking time out of busy schedules to join us – whether that was up on stage, submitting thoughtful questions, or catching up over a drink and bite to eat. Also, a bit shoutout to everyone at SMU and at CRU who made this event possible. It’s no understatement to say that we have a fantastic team.
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Final thoughts
Day one and two of SMU's Steel Summit 2024 are officially in the books. We covered a lot of ground, and the agenda sure did deliver.
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Final thoughts
The big show is just about here. SMU Steel Summit will be getting underway on Monday. Where does the networking begin? I’d say at the airport. So don’t forget your business cards. And it can't hurt to wear a company golf shirt.