Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
April 23, 2018
Another hectic week in the flat rolled and plate steel markets. Buyers and sellers of steel are all waiting to see what calamity awaits when the clock ticks 12:01 AM on May 1. That is when the Section 232 country exclusions are set to expire, according to the deadline set by President Trump. What he decides to do from there is anyone’s guess. A manufacturing company provided me the quote of the day when he said, “…too many plates are spinning right now to try and peg a price direction. The wrong tweet at the wrong time could throw all your planning out the window.”
My personal opinion is President Trump is going to let some, if not all of the countries that are not involved in negotiations with the U.S., expire. That means Europe, for sure, as they have stated they will not negotiate anything until they are provided a full exclusion from the 232 tariffs. May 1 is but one week away…
A reminder that Tim Triplett and I will be attending the Metals Industry Boy Scout Dinner in Chicago on May 10.
I will be speaking at a Bank of America Merrill Lynch conference in Miami on May 16.
I will be in New York City on June 25 and 26, but I will not be attending Steel Success Strategies. On the 25th, I will be at a CRU event in the afternoon and the Bank of America Merrill Lynch dinner that evening.
I want to thank all of you who have been recommending the SMU Steel Summit Conference as THE one conference to go to if you can only go to one this year. We are going to have another great event with a packed schedule, interesting speakers and the best networking of any steel conference. On top of that, it is the best value for your money, be it the cost to attend, airfare to Atlanta, free train to the hotels and convention site and reasonable hotel rates. Come join us and about 800 of your industry friends in Atlanta on Aug. 27-29.
When it comes to education about the steel industry, THE workshop you want to attend is Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals. Our next Steel 101 workshop will be June 5-6 in Memphis, Tenn. This will be a special event. Excellent hotel (Westin), two mill tours (Nucor Hickman and Nucor-Yamato), excellent instructors and a great program. Go to www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel101 for more details and for registration. You are also welcome to call me at 800-432-3475 and I will do my best to answer any questions you might have.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
From one group of folks, I’ve heard that Trump might not wait until Feb. 1 – the date he threatened on to place tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. They say he could act as soon as Friday. And then there are those who don’t think anything will happen before April 1. That’s the deadline for Commerce, Treasury, and USTR to submit key reports on “America First Trade Policy” to President Trump.
Final Thoughts
Trump made a clarification in a speech on Monday. Previously, he had declared the word “tariff” the most beautiful word in the dictionary. No longer.
Final Thoughts
President Donald Trump on Sunday hammered Colombia with 25% tariffs and threatened to increase them to 50%. Trump in a post on Truth Social said he took the action not because of a trade dispute but because the South American nation had refused to accept planes carrying deported immigrants. The president also cited "national security" concerns, just as he did to justify 25% Section 232 tariffs on steel in his first term. Even the 50% threat echoes his first term. Turkish steel, like that of most nations, was assessed a 25% tariff in March 2018. Trump doubled Turkey's tariff to 50% via a tweet in August of that year over a matter unrelated to steel.
Final Thoughts
We surveyed many of you this week and asked what you wanted to see from the new Trump administration. Responses were varied but fell largely into three groups: tariffs and trade policy, the Nippon-U.S. Steel deal, and those who are concerned about too much government sway in steel. Some also expressed hope that President Trump would continue the infrastructure spending that began under former President Biden.
Final Thoughts
Sometimes new presidential administrations hit the ground running. No time for change like the present. And sometimes new administrations blast off on a SpaceX rocket bound for Mars. There’s a big universe, and we’ve got a lot of flags to plant. Such seems to be the case with the new Trump administration.