SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Service Center Spot Price Trend Broken
Written by John Packard
April 22, 2018
According to manufacturing companies, as well as steel service centers, the steady trend for higher flat rolled steel spot prices out of the distributors is changing. For the past four months, at least 74 percent of distributors and their manufacturing customers have been reporting spot flat rolled prices as rising.
The 46 percent of the service centers currently reporting higher spot prices to their end customers is 33 percent lower than what was reported at the beginning of April and 54 percent lower than mid-March 2018.
In SMU’s opinion, how service centers handle their spot pricing into their end customers is a harbinger of things to come. In this case, it could be signaling the end of the “up” price cycle the flat rolled industry has been on since mid-fourth-quarter 2017.
The trend has shifted with a majority of our service center respondents reporting spot prices as either stable (52 percent) or being lowered (2 percent). The balance (46 percent) are still reporting prices as rising. We haven’t seen the rising numbers below 50 percent since the first week of December 2017.
Manufacturing companies are echoing the distributors as 57 percent of the manufacturing respondents are reporting service centers raising spot pricing. This represents a drop of 31 percent reporting higher spot prices than what we saw at the beginning of April.

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Mills unlikely to budge on price, buyers say
Four out of every five steel buyers who responded to our latest market survey say domestic mills are unwilling to negotiate on new order spot pricing. Mills have shown little flexibility on pricing for nearly two months.

SMU’s March at a glance
SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of our key steel market metrics for the previous month, with the latest data updated through March 31.

SMU Survey: Steel buyers maintain confident market outlook
SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices showed mixed movements this week but remain strong, reflecting continued confidence among steel buyers.

SMU Survey: Perspectives differ on impact of Trump tariffs
Are President Trump's tariff policies helping? Steel buyers offer their opinions on the impact of Trump's tariffs.

SMU Survey: Lead times stabilize as tariff-induced buying slows
After a multi-week increase, buyers responding to our market survey this week reported that lead times are stabilizing or marginally declining for each of the sheet and plate products we track.