Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
July 21, 2017
Boy, am I receiving mixed messages – more than I think I ever have before during my 40 year plus career in (or covering) the industry. My opinion is the mixed messages are due to the interference in “normal” market operations by the Trump administration. This is especially destructive when promises are made for Section 232 recommendations and the date goes by with nothing. At the same time, the president is telling people that the steel industry is going to be so happy with what he is going to do, and nothing gets done. The creates indecision within the industry.
So, on one hand we have the domestic steel mills announcing higher steel prices and, at the same time I have a conference call with HARDI wholesalers who tell me that prices have barely budged and competition from service centers indicates no issues with inventories. There is plenty of steel on the service center floors according to SMU sources. MSCI sees it differently. More mixed messages.
When looking at our survey results we found the approximately 50 service centers responding to last week’s questionnaire reporting inventories at 2.3 months. Thirty-seven percent of those same distributors reported having “off the books” inventory which makes capturing the accurate inventory levels that much more difficult. We will have more on this subject in Tuesday evening’s newsletter.
Another busy week ahead. I will be in my office all week working on pricing, reaction from the market, foreign steel offerings and service center inventories. Stay tuned.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Sometimes new presidential administrations hit the ground running. No time for change like the present. And sometimes new administrations blast off on a SpaceX rocket bound for Mars. There’s a big universe, and we’ve got a lot of flags to plant. Such seems to be the case with the new Trump administration.
Final Thoughts
What’s been the impact of tariff threats on prices and demand? In short, not much – or at least that was the case when I was writing this column on Sunday afternoon. Spot activity for Canadian material, for example, has been put on hold over the last few weeks while the market waits to see what the new tariff landscape might look like.
Final Thoughts
Next Monday marks the start of the second Trump administration. The limbo we’ve been living in since Election Day in early November will finally come to an end. What better way to take a look at what’s coming up in Washington, D.C., than a conversation with Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) President Philip K. Bell. He […]
Final Thoughts
It’s another week of big headlines and ho-hum pricing moves – which is to say the start of 2025 is looking a lot like the end of 2024. Scrap has settled up $20 per gross ton (gt). Steel prices, however, were a soft sideways this week. Chalk it up to uneven demand and abundant supply. And while we’re not aware of any major outages, some of you tell us that you’ve lost some shipping days here and there because of the recent cold snap.
Final Thoughts
I wrote in a Final Thoughts a few years ago that it seemed all the swans were black. More recently, I’ve been asked by some of you what the wildcards are for 2025. You could probably make the case that all the cards are wild now.