Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
May 15, 2017
I have read reports that suggest the first fully integrated mill in Vietnam, Formosa Ha Tinh Steel, has received permission to test their #1 blast furnace. The Vietnamese government has approved the pollution control equipment and the company is going to be allowed to run the blast furnace on a six-month trial period. In July 2016, this same mill caused a devastating toxic spill that impacted 125 miles of coastline in the province of Ha Tinh and three other provinces in Central Vietnam, affecting the country’s fishing and tourism industries.
We have been working on a new section for members in our website. The section is entitled “Trade Cases” and we have the results of the corrosion resistant (CORE), cold rolled, hot rolled and cut-to-length plate (CTL) in the site. The data can be found under the Resources tab (although we may move it to the Analysis tab at a future date). Please take a look and advise what adjustments or new information you would like to see contained in the data. These pages were created based on a question from one of our member companies. SMU does react to questions and suggestions so please keep them coming: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
I will be traveling to Atlanta and then on to Chicago on Wednesday. I will be available by email should you have any need to reach me: John@SteelMarketUpate.com.
On Thursday I will be attending the Metal Industry sponsored Boy Scout Dinner at the Hilton Chicago Hotel at 720 South Michigan Avenue. If you would like to meet with me please shoot me an email with your cell number. I will email or text you back once I am able to review my schedule.
We had 16 new registrations for the SMU Steel Summit Conference which takes place on August 28, 29 & 30th. We are now over 300 registrations and well on our way to 500+ executives at this year’s event. We invite you to join us if you have not already made arrangements to do so. It will be the largest conference featuring “pure” steel people in North America this year. You can find out more details here or by contacting our office at 772-932-7538 or info@SteelMarketUpdate.com (or ask me if you are at the Boy Scout Dinner in Chicago on Thursday). There are 103 days to go…
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher

John Packard
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Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.

Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.

Final Thoughts
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.

Final Thoughts
A modest week-to-week change in HR price understates a huge swing in expectations.