Economy
Chicago Business Barometer at Highest Level in Over Two Years
Written by Sandy Williams
April 29, 2017
The Chicago Business Barometer in April reached its highest level since January 2015, posting a score of 58.3 from 57.7 in March.
Growing demand for manufactured products pushed new orders up 5.5 points to a near three-year high. The production index in April was at another high level although receding slightly to 59.5 from 61.7.
Backlogs contracted for the fifth month and at a faster rate than recent months. Supplier delivery times lengthened, with the index moving 1.6 points higher to 56.0
Prices paid were up 14 percent year over year, but increased at a slower pace in April. Factory gate prices eased somewhat during the month.
Employment levels expanded in April pulling out of contraction after falling below the neutral 50 mark in March. The employment index expanded only seven times in the last 24 months but two of those have been in the last three months.
A recent hike in interest rates was not of great concern to survey respondents. More than half of those responding to the special question said they expect to remain unaffected.
“The April Chicago report showcased another impressive month, with firms reporting solid growth. Rising demand and firm production led to a pick-up in hiring by firms. Although the employment indicator has been bumpy, in and out of contraction, if the current month’s rise is sustained, it could provide a boost to the labor market,” said Shaily Mittal, senior economist at MNI Indicators.
The Chicago Business Barometer is a composite diffusion indicator made up of the Production, New Orders, Order Backlogs, Employment and Supplier Deliveries indicators and is designed to predict future changes in US gross domestic product (GDP). An indicator reading above 50 indicates expansion compared with a month earlier while below 50 indicates contraction. A result of 50 is neutral. The farther an indicator is above or below 50, the greater or smaller the rate of change.
Sandy Williams
Read more from Sandy WilliamsLatest in Economy
Architecture billings flat in October after months of contraction
Architecture firms reported stable billings in October, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) released by the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek. This follows 20 months of contracting business conditions.
Trump taps Lutnick to be Commerce Secretary
President-elect Donald Trump has named Wall Street veteran Howard Lutnick as the new US Secretary of Commerce.
New York state manufacturing activity ramps up to multi-year high
New York state’s manufacturing sector saw substantial recovery in November, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
CRU: Dollar and bond yields rise, metal prices fall as Trump wins election
Donald Trump has won the US presidential election. The Republican party has re-taken control of the Senate. Votes are still being counted in many tight congressional races. But based on results so far, the Republicans seem likely to maintain control of the House of Representatives. If confirmed, this will give Trump considerable scope to pass legislation pursuing his agenda. What this means for US policy is not immediately obvious. Trump will not be inaugurated until Jan. 20. In the coming weeks and months, he will begin to assemble his cabinet, which may give a clearer signal on his policy priorities and approaches. Based on statements he made during the presidential campaign, we have set out the likely direction of his economic policy here and green policy here.
ISM: Manufacturing index fell in Oct to lowest point of ’24
Domestic manufacturing contracted for the seventh straight month in October, according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). This marks the 23rd time in the last 24 months that it has been in contraction.