Regional Job Creation through Q1 2017

The 10 geographic regions described in this report are described as follows:

New England – CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT
North East – NY, PA, NJ
Mid Atlantic – DE, DC, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV
North Central – IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, SD
East North Central – IL, IN, MI, OH, WI
East South Central – AL, KY, MS, TN
South Central – TX, OK, LA, AR
Mountain – AZ, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, UT, WY
Pacific Region – CA, OR, WA
South East – FL, GA

Table 1 shows the history of quarterly job creation by region since Q1 2014.

All regions had positive job creation in the final two quarters of 2016 and the first of 2017. The effect of energy prices is evident in these regional employment reports. The South Central region went off a cliff in Q1 2015 after having the highest job creation of any region in the previous quarter. This region improved in the second half of last year and in Q1 2017 was well on its way to its historical performance. In the nine quarters since Q4 2015, North Dakota has lost 35,200 jobs, Oklahoma has lost 12,500 jobs but Texas has gained 466,000 jobs. In the last three quarters of 2016 the Pacific region created the most jobs in each quarters but the South Central took first place in Q1 2017. The only region to have a negative quarter in 2016 was the East South Central which lost 5,300 jobs in Q2, mainly in Mississippi which was down by 10,000. Alabama was up by 7,300.

The regions have fared very differently since the pre-recession high of Q1 2008 and since the low point of Q4 2009. There are now 7,750,000 more people employed than there were immediately before the recession but of that number almost half occurred in the South Central, and Pacific regions (Table 2).

The third quarter of 2015 was the first time that every region had more people employed than it did at the pre-recession peak. The Pacific has had the largest number of jobs created during the recovery with an increase of 3,259,000 positions which amounts to 17.6 percent of total employment. The South Central is in 2nd place with 2,230,000 jobs created which is 15.1 percent of total employment. Employment is now 16,180,000 positions higher than it was at the low point of the recession. The East North Central currently has the highest number of employed people with 21,937,000 but the Pacific with 21,782,000 is catching up fast (Table 3). During the depths of the recession in Q1 and Q2 2009, the East North Central had the highest number of job losses.

SMU Comment: We believe it’s important for those subscribers whose businesses are substantially regional to have as much data as possible to compare their own results with those of their locality. This report along with regional GDP which we also report quarterly is intended to help in that respect.