SMU Data and Models
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index Sets New Highs
Written by John Packard
March 9, 2017
Optimism reigns supreme within the steel community and those responsible for buying and selling flat rolled steel products. The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index set new record highs for both Current and Future Sentiment indices.
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel set a new record high for a single data point at +77 for our Current Sentiment Index. Our preference is to look at the data through a three-month moving average (3MMA) which helps smooth out any bumps in the data. On a 3MMA basis Current Sentiment is +73 which is also a new record high, one year ago our 3MMA was +53.17.
Future Sentiment
Future Sentiment, which is how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful 3 to 6 months into the future, was down 2 points to +73. However, when looking at Future Sentiment based on the 3 month moving average, Future Sentiment set a new record high at +73.50.
What Our Respondents are Saying
“Steel pricing in all regions is now starting to impact product margins in all regions. The most recent rise in Asia pricing was not anticipated and is weighing heavy on future company profits. End customers are pushing back on finished good price increases so margins are being impacted.” Manufacturing company who went on to say, “Demand is improving, but margins are eroding with each steel price move up.”
“Our sales are currently flat because of a low inventory level as we try and figure out if we should be restocking at these price levels.” Service center
“At some point the market will begin to soften. It’s been showing some resistance even with a backdrop of strong market drivers. But skepticism is healthy and tends to keep everyone’s feet on the ground. It could prolong this leg of the rally.” Steel mill
“Existing customers are ordering less.” Service center
About the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index is a measurement of the current attitude of buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel products in North America regarding how they feel about their company’s opportunity for success in today’s market. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry.
Positive readings will run from +10 to +100 and the arrow will point to the right hand side of the meter located on the Home Page of our website indicating a positive or optimistic sentiment.
Negative readings will run from -10 to -100 and the arrow will point to the left hand side of the meter on our website indicating negative or pessimistic sentiment.
A reading of “0” (+/- 10) indicates a neutral sentiment (or slightly optimistic or pessimistic) which is most likely an indicator of a shift occurring in the marketplace.
Readings are developed through Steel Market Update market surveys which are conducted twice per month. We display the index reading on a meter on the Home Page of our website for all to enjoy.
Currently, we send invitations to participate in our survey to almost 600 North American companies. Our normal response rate is approximately 110-170 companies. Of those responding to this week’s survey, 40 percent were manufacturing and 42 percent were service centers/distributors. The balance of the respondents are made up of steel mills, trading companies, and toll processors involved in the steel business.
Click here to view an interactive graphic of the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index or the SMU Future Steel Buyers Sentiment Index.
John Packard
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