Service Center Intake, Shipments and Inventory November 2016

In November total carbon steel intake at 122,500 tons per day (t/d) was 11,700 tons less than shipments. This was the third month of intake deficit after three months of surplus. The deficit averaged 13,100 tons in the three months through November following an average surplus of 4,000 tons in the three months through August. Total sheet products had an intake deficit of 9,900 t/d in November with HRC having a deficit of 9,100 t/d, CRC had a deficit of 900 tons and coated products a surplus of 100 tons.

Total service center carbon steel shipments decreased by 5,100 tons on a per day basis from 139,300 in October to 134,200 in November, a decrease of 3.7 percent. In the eight years since and including 2009, November t/d shipments on average have been down by 2.1 percent. Therefore this November was worse than normal. This observation is intended to give a long term perspective because MSCI data is quite seasonal and we need to get past that before commenting in detail on current results. Figure 1 demonstrates this seasonality and why comparing a month’s performance with the previous month is usually misleading.

History tells us that we can expect the normal shipment collapse in December and a very strong rebound in January. In the SMU analysis we always consider year over year changes to eliminate seasonality. Table 1 shows the performance by product in November compared to the same month last year and also with the average t/d shipments for this and the two previous months of November.

We then calculate the percent change between November 2016 and November 2015 and with the 3 year November average. Our intention is to provide an undistorted view of market direction. Even though November shipments were better than September this was not the case for year over year comparison for any product other than coated sheet which had a strong positive gain.

In December 2015 the MSCI expanded their data to include sub sets of the major product groups and provided two years of data for 2014 and 2015. Table 1 shows the breakdown of sheet products into hot rolled, cold rolled and coated products on the same basis as for the other major product groups.

Shipments of all carbon steel products in November on a t/d basis were down by 1.6 percent y/y and were 5.8 percent less than the average November shipments for 2016, 2015 and 2014. The fact that the single month y/y growth comparison is better than the three year comparison suggests that there is positive momentum meaning that the slowdown is slowing. Figure 2 shows the long term trends of daily carbon steel shipments since 2000 as three month moving averages.

In our opinion, the quickest way to size up the market is the brown bars in Figures 2, 4, 5 and 6 which show the y/y change in shipments. All four of these graphs show a y/y contraction though sheet is by far the best product group. Total daily shipments had a post recessionary high of 173,300 in June 2014 and, as shown by the brown bars in Figure 2, have had 21 consecutive months of negative y/y growth. In November shipments of all products except HRC and coated sheet were down year over year. Sheet products in total were up by 2.2 percent. Figure 3 shows the shipment history since January 2014 of the three major sheet products.

Long product shipments from service centers are now lower than they were at the depths of the recession which considering the growth in construction takes some explaining. There may have (probably has) been a migration of buyers away from service centers as mills have had inventory available for sale and room in their schedules. Other possibilities are that an unknown quantity of shapes has morphed from hot rolled to cold formed and there has been some move from beams to hollow structural shapes in building frames. Then possibly the numbers are inaccurate because of gaps in company participation (Figure 4).

In previous reports we have combined sheet and plate as total flat rolled but these two categories have diverged so much in 2016 that it no longer makes sense to combine them. Sheet and plate products both had a good post-recession recovery. Both had some contraction in 2013 and growth in 2014 but since early 2015 they have diverged dramatically to the point that in November y/y sheet was up by 2.2 percent as plate was down by 7.3 percent. Figures 5 and 6 show the 3MMA of t/d shipments and the y/y growth for each.

In 2006 and 2007, the mills and service centers were operating at maximum capacity, Figure 7 takes the shipments by product since that time frame and indexes them to the average for 2006 and 2007 in order to measure the extent to which service center shipments of each product have recovered.

Each year all products experience the December collapse and January pick up. The total of carbon steel products is now at 63.2 percent of the shipping rate that existed in 2006 and 2007, with structurals and bar at 47.9 percent and 44.8 percent respectively. Sheet is at 73.2 percent, plate at 59.0 percent and tubulars at 58.7 percent.

Inventories

November closed with months on hand (MoH) of 2.33 for all carbon steel products, which was unchanged from the end of October. All products except structurals and coated sheet had a double digit y/y decrease in inventory tonnage with tubulars down by 27.2 percent and HRC down by 26.3 percent. Figure 8 shows the MoH by product monthly since January 2009.

All products had a surge in months on hand in July driven not by an inventory volume increase but by a decrease in monthly shipments as a result of a small number of shipping days. Figure 9 shows both the monthly inventory and months on hand since January 2008 for total sheet products.

Total sheet inventory tonnage has been in decline since the beginning of 2015 with a bit of an uptick in August and September. Figure 10 shows the change in inventory monthly for the big 3 sheet products.

Compared to HR, the monthly change in inventory tonnages of CR and coated have been quite small for the last 17 months. HR inventory experienced an abrupt negative shift in September of this year.

SMU Comment: in Figures 2, 4, 5 and 6, the white lines show t/d shipments. There was a decline in shipments for carbon steel products in total in 2015 but this year the decline has slowed. Figure 11 shows the total supply to the market of long and flat products based on AISI shipment and import data.

Total supply of long products is much better than the MSCI report of service center shipments with a volume almost double the recessionary low point. Total supply of flat rolled products peaked in November 2014, declined through November 2015 and rose through August this year before declining abruptly in October. For flat rolled, the MSCI and AISI data were in reasonable agreement with one another until September when the MSCI did not show the same decline. Note: this supply data is one month behind the MSCI information.

The SMU data base contains many more product specific charts than can be shown in this brief review. For each product we have ten year charts for shipments, intake, inventory tonnage and months on hand. Some readers have requested these extra charts for a particular product and others are welcome to do so.