SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times Extend YOY
Written by John Packard
December 8, 2016
Over the past four days Steel Market Update has been conducting one of our market trends surveys. The respondents to our queries have provided data indicating slightly longer lead times on hot rolled, cold rolled and Galvalume while galvanized lead times remained steady at mid-November levels.
The lead times reported in this article are the average of the responses collected from all of our steel survey respondents for each flat rolled product. The averages do not reflect the lead time at any one supplier. As an average you can expect to find steel mill lead times at domestic steel producers that may be longer or shorter than what we are reporting below.
The purpose of our survey is to identify any changes in the trend. In this case are lead times moving in one direction or another?
Average hot rolled lead times are closing in on four and a half weeks (4.31 weeks) which is an improvement over the 4.18 weeks we reported in mid-November and much higher than the 2.84 weeks we saw not that long ago in the middle of October 2016. One year ago HRC lead times averaged 3.05 weeks.
Cold rolled lead times, which averaged less than five weeks (4.78 weeks) one year ago are now averaging six and a half weeks (6.58 weeks) up from 6.35 weeks in mid-November and much improved over the five (5.0) weeks reported in the middle of October 2016.
Galvanized lead times were unchanged at 6.84 weeks. This is one week further extended than what we were reporting in the middle of October. One year ago GI lead times were closer to five weeks (5.20).
Galvalume lead times moved out and are closing in on eight weeks (7.85 weeks). This is slightly longer than the 7.36 weeks reported at the middle of November and is about 1.25 weeks longer than what we saw in the middle of October 2016. One year ago AZ lead times averaged 6.13 weeks.
The longer the lead times the more support given to price increases and the pricing power of the domestic steel mills.
A side note: The data for both lead times and negotiations comes from only service center and manufacturer respondents. We do not include commentary from the steel mills, trading companies, or toll processors in this particular group of questions.
To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Negotiations data, visit our website here.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebound
Following months of fluctuations, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebounded this week, now at multi-month highs. Both of our Indices remain in positive territory and indicate that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times remain stable and short
Steel buyers participating in our market survey this week reported stable mill lead times for both sheet and plate steel products.
SMU Survey: Most buyers report mills still willing to talk price
Most steel buyers SMU polled this week reported that mills remain willing to negotiate new order pricing.
October service center shipments and inventories report
Flat rolled = 63.4 shipping days of supply Plate = 52.4 shipping days of supply Flat rolled shipments and inventories Flat-rolled steel supply at US service centers remains seasonally high. October inventories increased after edging lower in September – a dynamic driven largely by disappointing demand. October’s report reflects lower demand and stable lead times […]