Trend Developing as Steel Mill Lead Times Slip

Hot rolled lead times are averaging 4.0 weeks, essentially unchanged from our early July analysis (4.07 weeks). At the beginning of June HRC lead times peaked at 5.43 weeks. One year ago HRC lead times were 3.37 weeks.

Cold rolled lead times also were essentially unchanged at 6.63 weeks versus the 6.79 weeks measured at the beginning of July. As with hot rolled, cold rolled lead times peaked the first week of June at 8.04 weeks. One year ago CRC lead times were reported to be averaging less than 6.0 weeks (5.71 weeks).

Galvanized lead times slipped slightly to 7.38 weeks from 7.50 weeks. The peak for GI lead times was during the month of May when they were averaging 8.5 weeks. They have been slowly slipping ever since. One year ago lead times were about 6.0 weeks (5.95 weeks).

Galvalume lead times also slipped a tiny bit from 7.29 weeks at the beginning of the month to 7.11 weeks. The peak of the cycle was achieved during the middle of May at 8.44 weeks.

Lead times are one of the best indicators as we strive to understand the strength of the market and what direction prices are most likely to move from here. At this time, Steel Market Update has our Price Momentum Indicator at Neutral suggesting momentum for prices is not clearly defined and that they could move in either direction (+/- $20/ton) over the next 30 days.

A side note: The data for both lead times and negotiations comes from only service center and manufacturer respondents. We do not include commentary from the steel mills, trading companies, or toll processors in this particular group of questions.

To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Negotiations data, visit our website here.