Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
July 22, 2016
I don’t know if I have ever seen a market quite like the one we are living through right now. Supply is being constrained through the use of the trade suits coupled with US Steel taking down two blast furnaces at Granite City and AK Steel taking down their lone blast furnace at Ashland. There are two other mills that are making me nervous right now – Essar Steel Algoma and US Steel Canada – the union nixed the deal at Algoma as the union wants Essar to be allowed back into the bidding process. USSC is asking for more time and they have to prove to the Canadian restructuring court that they can be profitable. You would think that would be easy in a supply constrained market. I am nervous because it is not a sure thing that these two mills will actually be operating if they don’t find a white knight that can make the unions happy. To me this story sounds a little bit like Wheeling Pittsburgh where the union turned their back on CSN so they could be bought by Esmark. That did not end too well for the WP people.
A number of people have asked me why I haven’t moved my Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Lower. After all, they tell me, HRC prices have moved off of their highs. The issue I have continues to be about supply and surprises that we don’t get to see coming – like the change in the AD duties on corrosion resistant for Taiwan. What happens if the US DOC/ITC come down hard on hot rolled substrate from Korea, Japan and Australia? There are a couple of mills on the West Coast that might be hurting for supply.
So, i am waiting and watching to see what happens from here before I make a change.
I want to take a moment to welcome our newest member companies and to let them know that we enjoy getting questions and suggestions from our readers. If you want to know more about a subject that we should be covering please let me know. A number of articles each week are prompted by questions from our members. You can reach me at: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
The difference: The spat with Turkey was a big deal for steel. This time, the 50% reciprocal tariff for Brazil – if it goes into effect as threatened on Aug.1 – hits everything from coffee and to pig iron. It seems almost custom-built to inflict as much pain as possible on Brazil.

Final Thoughts
Are we on the cusp of sorting out the tariff situation, or is this merely another round in the bout?

Final Thoughts
I’m not sure how many different ways I can write that it’s been a quiet market ahead of Independence Day. There are variations on that theme. I’ve heard everything from the ominous “eerily quiet” to "getting better" and even the occasional “blissfully unaware” (because I’m enjoying my vacation).

Final Thoughts
What's going to be the next big thing in steel?

Final Thoughts
Based on the amount of ‘out of office’ replies we’ve been receiving and the results of this week’s steel buyers’ survey, those pesky summer doldrums have arrived for the steel industry.