SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey Respondents on More Price Increases/Demand
Written by John Packard
June 5, 2016
Last week Steel Market Update conducted our early June flat rolled steel market trends analysis. Besides gathering data regarding how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful (SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index) we also asked questions about pricing, demand, buying patterns, foreign steel, lead times and negotiations. We posted the results on Friday for our Premium level members and those who participated in the survey.
Over the past few surveys we have been asking our respondents if they expect the domestic steel mills to raise prices within the next 30 days. We found the results from last week quite interesting as many buyers and sellers of steel are beginning to think that the pace of mill increases may be waning.
At the beginning of May 2016 only 5 percent of those surveyed did not believe the mills would raise prices within 30 days. That number increased to 17 percent by Mid-May and now stands at 38 percent.
We do not assume that this is the end of the price announcements (as 62 percent believe there will be more). However, we are concerned about another piece of data gleaned from last week’s analysis and that is a weakening trend seen in overall demand (all respondents).
During the 1st Quarter we saw our respondents as much more bullish on whether demand for their products was improving (the purple bars in the graphic below), remaining the same or in decline. As you can see those reporting demand as improving has dropped from a high of 47 percent at the beginning of April to 28 percent. We are now at levels similar to what we saw last year at this time and we will have to wait and see if we transition into a similar track taken in 3Q 2015 as those reporting demand spiked in early 4th Quarter.

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Sheet lead times ease further, plate hits one-year high
Steel buyers responding to this week’s SMU market survey report a continued softening in sheet lead times. Meanwhile, plate lead times have moderately extended and are at a one-year high.

SMU Survey: Buyers report more price flexibility from mills
Nearly half of the steel buyers responding to this week’s SMU market survey say domestic mills are showing increased willingness to negotiate pricing on new spot orders. This marks a significant shift from the firmer stance mills held in prior weeks.

SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment Indices fall
Current Sentiment Index dropped six points to +42 this week compared to two weeks earlier. It has fallen in every successive survey since reaching a 2025 high of +66 on Feb. 19.

March service center shipments and inventories report
Steel service center shipments and inventories report through March 2024.

Apparent steel supply contracts in February
The amount of finished steel that entered the US market in February receded from January’s peak, according to our analysis of Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data.